NCR’s COVID reproduction number increasing but area remains ‘low risk’ — OCTA
MANILA, Philippines — The reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila has increased but the metropolis has remained under the “low risk” classification, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said on Tuesday.
OCTA research fellow Guido David said the current reproduction number in the National Capital Region has increased to 1.05 as of May 20, compared to the area’s R0 of 0.90 in its previous report.
The R0 (pronounced as r-naught) indicates how infectious a disease is. For instance, an R0 of 1 means that each carrier transmits the virus to one person. The current R0 of 1.05 meant that each existing infection would cause more than one new infection.
However, in a Twitter post, David noted that “a reproduction number above 1 does not necessarily mean cases will surge.”
David also pointed out that the last two times the R0 increased to more than 1 were on December 24, 2021, and July 15, 2021 — that was during the start of the omicron and delta surges, respectively.
That being said, David said the best case scenario is “status quo” while the worst case scenario is a “weak surge” of cases.
“Based on current data, the worst-case scenario we see over the next few weeks is a weak surge in COVID-19 cases,” David added.
READ: DOH detects Omicron BA.4 subvariant in PH
So far, the new Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.2.12.1. have entered the country, according to the Department of Health.
READ: PH detects local transmission of Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1
David previously said that the new subvariants may cause another surge in COVID-19 cases once they entered the country, but it would not be as high as the cases recorded in January due to the Omicron variant.
READ: OCTA: Surge seen if Omicron subvariant detected in PH; up to 100K active cases projected
As of Monday, the Philippines recorded a total of 3,689,132 cases of the new coronavirus, including 2,271 active cases, 3,626,406 recoveries and 60,455 deaths, according to DOH.
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