OCTA: Surge seen if Omicron subvariant detected in PH; up to 100K active cases projected

MANILA, Philippines — Another surge in COVID-19 cases may happen once the new Omicron subvariants are detected in the country, Octa Research fellow Guido David said Tuesday.

Based on the preliminary projections, David said active cases could reach up to 100,000 should the surge happen, while daily new cases could reach 10,000.

“We are seeing a possible increase in cases. Actually, it could happen anytime, hindi natin masasabi kung kailan makakapasok yun. Ang dahilan diyan, we are seeing a surge in South Africa at sa Delhi, India and these are countries na medyo similar ang characteristics sa Philippines,” David said during the Laging Handa briefing.

(We are seeing a possible increase in cases. Actually it could happen anytime since we do not know when it will reach us. The reason is, we are seeing surge in South Africa and Delhi, India and these are countries that have similar characteristics to the Philippines.)

“Ang concern natin ay kapag nakapasok itong bagong subvariant dito sa Philippines, magkakaroon na rin ng pagtaas ng cases,” he added.

(Our concern is once the subvariants reach the Philippines, we will have an increase in cases.)

David, however, said that should there be a surge, it would not be as high as the cases recorded in January due to the Omicron variant.

“Hindi natin nakikita na baka maging kasing taas ng naging surge nitong January. Pero at the same time, itong surge sa South Africa and India, bago pa lang sila, so mino-monitor pa natin,” David said.

(We do not see that it will be as high as the surge in January. But at the same time, the surge in South Africa and India just started so we are still monitoring it.)

“As of now, preliminary, we are projecting siguro up to 50,000 to 100,000 active cases which means siguro mga 5,000 cases per day, pwedeng tumaas to even 10,000 cases per day,” he added.

(As of now, preliminary, our projection is at 50,000 to 100,000 active cases which means around 5,000 cases per day or even 10,000 per day.)

The Department of Health (DOH) reported an additional 213 new COVID-19 infections in the country on Monday, bringing active infections to 12,639.

The health department earlier warned that a 50-percent decrease in the compliance to minimum public health standards may lead to nearly “half a million” active infections in the National Capital Region (NCR) by mid-May.

The DOH, however, has clarified that its warning was only a projection and is not cast in stone.

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