Magnitude 6.5 to 7.2 quake in Metro Manila could kill at least 40,000 — Phivolcs

MANILA, Philippines — If a magnitude 6.5 to 7.2 earthquake strikes Metro Manila and Greater Manila, an estimated casualty count of at least 40,000 can be expected, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said Tuesday.

Citing a Risk Analysis Project 2014 report, Ishmael Narag, Officer-in-Charge of Phivolcs Seismological Observation and Earthquake Prediction Division, said there may be an estimated 40,000 casualties in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Pampanga, Cavite, and Laguna in the event of a magnitude 6.5 to 7.2 earthquake in the West Valley Fault.

The West Valley Fault traverses several parts of Metro Manila and surrounding provinces such as Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, and Cavite.

“The Valley Fault scenario would extend the level of damage and casualties beyond Metro Manila and [through] the software that we are currently using, we were able to evaluate as well the impact in the surrounding provinces. In fact, the casualty count is more than 40,000,” Narag said at a press conference in Quezon City.

Narag added that Phivolcs is seeking to put more instrumentation devices around the West Valley Fault to pick up even small events and study movement trends along the fault.

“Kailangan mai-locate properly at makita ang trend ng activity along the fault (We need to locate the movements properly so we can study the trend of movements along the fault),” Narag said.

Phivolcs earlier disowned a text message saying that a magnitude 7.1 magnitude earthquake may strike Metro Manila soon. He said there is no technology yet in the world that can predict when and where an earthquake will happen.

“The text message is not from DOST-Phivolcs. There is no basis for the warning,” Phivolcs said in a statement in Filipino on Tuesday.

READ: Phivolcs: No technology yet to predict earthquakes

Phivolcs held a press conference in the wake of a magnitude 6.1 and magnitude 6.5 earthquakes that struck Zambales and Samar, respectively. /ee

READ: Magnitude 6.5 earthquake rattles Eastern Samar

READ: Magnitude 6.1 earthquake shakes parts of Luzon