COVID-19 curve may take ‘wrong trend’ if it won’t flatten by next week — expert

MANILA, Philippines — The curve of coronavirus disease infections might be going in a “wrong trend” if it would not be flattened by next week, a member of a research group from the University of the Philippines said Wednesday.

Dr. Guido David of the UP OCTA Research Team noted that the Philippines currently has a reproduction number of 1.02, which he said is an indication that the country is nearing to achieve the flattening of the curve of COVID-19 infections.

According to David, the reproduction number of COVID-19 cases, or the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case, may become less than one this week.

“Dapat mga this week na [maging less than one], kasi mabilis naman, hindi naman ganoon kabagal ‘yung pagflatten ng curve. Kung hindi pa siya magflatten by next week, ibig sabihin nasa maling trend na ulit tayo,” he said in an interview with ABS-CBN’s Teleradyo.

(It should become less than one this week because flattening the curve would not take too much time. If it will not be flattened by next week, it means we are in the wrong trend again.)

David said that the reproduction number of COVID-19 cases in the country decreased to less than one last week but slightly increased again this week.

“Ibig sabihin nagkakaroon ng increase ang transmission, pero pwedeng short-term lang ‘yan, so inaasahan natin na bababa ulit ‘yung reproduction number to less than 1 kasi sobrang lapit nang maging less than one. Ibig sabihin, kung hindi pa siya less than one next week, baka tumataas siya,” David explained.

(It means there was an increase in transmission but it could only be short term. We expect that the reproduction number will become lower again to less than one. If it is not yet less than one next week, it could be increasing.)

“Kasi hindi naman siya normally nag-i-stabilize ng ganyan. Either tumataas siya or bumababa siya, so makikita natin ang effect nito next week. Kung hindi siya bumaba, most likely tumaas siya kung hindi tayo nagflatten,” he further said.

David added that if the number of infections recorded daily will increase next week, the government should then identify which areas contribute most to the number of new cases.

Earlier, David said the UP OCTA Research Team predicted that the COVID-19 curve in the country may flatten by the end of August or September.

The country has so far recorded 224,264 COVID-19 cases with 3,483 additional cases reported on Tuesday. Of the total cases, 62,655 are active, 3,597 are deaths, and 158,012 are recoveries.

EDV