COVID-19 curve may flatten by end-August or September — UP expert

MANILA, Philippines — Despite the lifting of the modified enhanced community quarantine in Metro Manila and four nearby provinces, the country could still see a flattening of the curve of coronavirus disease infections by the end of August or in September, a member of a research group from the University of the Philippines said Monday.

Dr. Guido David of the UP OCTA Research Team explained there was a larger chance that the curve of COVID-19 cases may flatten by the end of August if the MECQ imposed in Metro Manila and four nearby provinces from August 4 to 18 was not lifted.

“Sa ngayon umaasa tayo na kaya pa rin ‘yan, katapusan ng August pwede maflatten ‘yung curve, pero kahit mga September siguro na mangyari ‘yan, okay lang din, maflatten natin ang curve slowly,” he said in an interview with ABS-CBN’s Teleradyo.

(Right now, we hope that this can still happen, that the curve may be flattened by the end of August. Even if we see the flattening of the curve in September, that would be okay, as we were able to flatten the curve slowly.)

But even after the curve was flattened, it would still take one to two months before the number of cases will reach a “very manageable level,” according to David.

On Sunday, the Department of Health reported additional 2,378 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the lowest single-day spike of new cases in August. David called this a “very good indication” of decreasing new COVID-19 cases.

David noted that the UP OCTA Research Team also noticed lower cases of infection being recorded by the DOH in the recent days.

“Noong one week ago pa, nakikita namin bumababa na ‘yung trend sa buong Pilipinas, ‘yung reproduction number. Pati na sa National Capital Region bumababa na rin ‘yung r-naught natin. Ngayon halos malapit na sya sa 1. Ibig sabihin medyo malapit na tayo magflatten ng curve,” he explained.

(Even since last week, we saw that the trend or the reproduction number is really decreasing. In the NCR, the r-naught is also decreasing. It is near 1, which means we are near flattening the curve.)

R-naught is the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case of the disease.

The total caseload of COVID-19 in the country has reached 189,601 as of Sunday. Of the confirmed cases, 131,367 are recoveries and 2,998 are deaths.

EDV