World Bank: BBL can’t ensure peace, new threat groups emerging

‘Rido’

Among the significant findings of the study was that there was more violence produced by clans, ethnic groups, political elites and private armed groups than by insurgents, paramilitary and government forces, and that the violence was caused by feuding clans and factional rivalry among rebel groups.

Iqbal said the BBL would provide an avenue for the settlement of clan feuds, or rido, which affect many Moro communities.

Ghazali Jaafar, MILF vice chair for political affairs, said the proposed Bangsamoro government would definitely deal with rido, which is mainly caused by conflict over land.

“Normally, land conflict is the source of rido, particularly because of the titling process,” Jaafar said in an interview with the Inquirer yesterday.

Jaafar blamed the problem on corruption. “If you have connections and the money then you will have your land title,” he said.

Litigation does not help, either, he said, “because some parties who are not satisfied with a judge’s decision could still be frustrated and just shoot or kill somebody.”

“The Bangsamoro government was designed to address the process of titling and to change the leadership into one that shuns corruption. We know how rido works and that is why we are confident [that we can solve] it,” Jaafar said.

The World Bank study also said that the end of the conflict between the government and the MILF will lessen political violence and improve the peace prospects in Mindanao.

But the study also noted that the government has to contend with “newly emerging sources of violence,” referring to these armed groups.

“It would be a mistake to assume that violent conflict in the Bangsamoro will end simply because formal peace processes have reached a positive outcome,” the study said.

According to the study, there were 2,758 cases of violent conflict in the five provinces previously named during 2011-2013 and that violence “fluctuated” across much of the region, except for Basilan and Tawi-Tawi, where violence has been declining since 2012.

But during the three-year period, Basilan had more violent incidents among the provinces, with an annual average of 78 incidents per year.

Causes of violence

There were three causes of violence: Conflicts arising from shadow economies (such as production and trade in illicit guns and drugs, kidnap for ransom, cattle rustling, smuggling, illegal gambling and pyramiding scams); politics (armed clashes with government forces, violence from electoral competition) and extrajudicial issues (robbery, rape and damage to property, among others).

The study noted that armed clashes between the government and the MILF significantly dropped in Maguindanao and Basilan, and this happened before and after the signing of a preliminary peace agreement between the government and the MILF in 2012.

“Nonetheless, the drop in violence associated with the MILF did not dent the popular perception that rebellion was the main cause of political violence, even though most of the violent conflicts associated with insurgents had to do with intra- and interinsurgent struggles,” the study said.

Interinsurgent violence, the study said, refers to violence “between two insurgents such as conflict between the MILF and the BIFF, while intrainsurgent violence pertains to violence within the insurgent group.’’

Still, the study said, political violence related to rebellion and insurgency inflicts the “largest human cost.’’

In the three-year period, the number of people killed, wounded and missing or kidnapped in rebellion-related cases were 258 in 2011 and 184 in 2013 while deaths caused by conflict between and among insurgents or rebel groups were 464 in 2011 and 443 in 2013.

“Without a doubt, ending the [government-MILF] conflict as a major source of rebellion-related violence retires a significant source of political violence with huge costs in terms of death, injury and displacement, and will impact positively on the prospects for peace and stability across the Bangsamoro,’’ the study said.

The study also said political and criminal violence was rising in new threat groups like the BIFF and criminal gangs in Mindanao.

BIFF attacks against government forces and local clans and communities increased from 19 incidents in 2011 to 37 incidents in 2013.

The Abu Sayyaf group still is a “potent threat’’ to peace and stability there, according to the study.

And another emerging threat of violence was crime syndicates in the Bangsamoro involved in kidnapping for ransom, extortion and sabotage, carjacking, robbery and illegal drug manufacturing and trade.

“An alarming increase in organized crime has been observed in the past three years. Their activities increased from 10 to 27 incidents from 2012 to 2013. They are spread out in the Bangsamoro provinces, especially in Maguindanao, Sulu and Basilan. They exacerbate the violence perpetrated by terrorist groups and other rebel factions,’’ the study said.

It also noted that religious affiliations did not figure much as underlying causes of violence unlike clan and tribal identities.

“This finding underscores the conclusions in previous studies showing that the Muslim-Christian divide is not a significant predictor of violent conflict in the Bangsamoro,” it said. With reports from Ryan Rosauro, Karlos Manlupig and Jeoffrey Maitem, Inquirer Mindanao

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