Metro Manila COVID-19 reproduction number dips – Octa

Metro Manila skyline at night (INQUIRER FILE PHOTO / JILSON SECKLER TIU)

MANILA, Philippines — The COVID-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila has decreased, an indication that new cases of coronavirus infection will soon peak, according to a Twitter post on Wednesday by Dr. Guido David, an Octa Research fellow.

As of Tuesday, Aug. 2, Metro Manila had a reproduction number of 1.24, slightly smaller than the 1.33 recorded last July 26, David said.

The reproduction number, also known as r-naught, indicates how infectious a disease is. An r-naught of 1 means that each carrier can transmit the virus to one person. The current r-naught of 1.24 means that each infection could cause more than one new infection.

“There is again hope that cases will peak soon,” David said his Twitter post.

However, the positivity rate in Metro Manila has slightly increased — from 15.5 percent as of July 26 to 16.9 percent as of Aug. 2.

The ICU occupancy rate has also slightly increased from 27 percent as of July 26 to 30 percent as of Aug. 2.

Metro Manila has recorded a seven-day average of 1,209 as of Aug. 2 compared to 1,057 as of July 26.

NCR indicators as of August 2, 2022 (compared with July 26). The growth rate decreased to 14% while the reproduction number decreased to 1.24. There is again hope that cases will peak soon. HCUR remained low. NCR still under moderate risk. Let us all stay safe! #COVID19 @dzbb pic.twitter.com/ISNOdqvQCE

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 3, 2022

The Omicron sublineage BA.2.75  — said to be more highly transmissible than its counterparts — has entered the country, with the Department of Health reporting two cases.

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