Metro Manila shows 71% COVID case increase, but situation ‘manageable’ — OCTA

MANILA, Philippines — Independent pandemic monitor Octa Research on Saturday said that while Metro Manila has shown a 71 percent increase of COVID-19 cases, the situation in the metropolis remains manageable.

Octa Research, in a bulletin shared by research fellow Guido David on Twitter, said the seven-day average of Metro Manila infections increased to 176 cases from June 11 to 17, compared to 103 cases the week before.

The increase in cases translates to an average daily attack rate (Adar) of 1.24, according to Octa. The Department of Health has said that for an area to be classified as under a moderate risk classification, its Adar needs to be at 6 per 100,000 population.

Only when Metro Manila becomes classified as moderate risk could the region be escalated to Alert Level 2.

Octa said the positivity rate of Metro Manila also increased to 3.7 percent, which is still well within the World Health Organization’s ideal positivity rate set at five percent.

Meanwhile, the current reproduction number of Metro Manila increased to 1.80 as of June 14, from 1.40 as of June 7, according to Octa.

The reproduction number (r-naught) indicates how infectious a disease is. For instance, an r-naught of 1 means that each carrier can transmit the virus to one person. So the current r-naught of 1.80 meant that each existing infection would cause more than one new infection.

David also said that while cases have been increasing, hospital bed utilization and intensive care unit utilization in the metropolis remains low at 22 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

“So far, the numbers we are seeing have been in line with our projections: a weak surge and no escalation of alert levels or restrictions because we expect our healthcare system will be able to manage the relatively low number of hospitalizations,” Octa said in its bulletin.

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