Octa: Metro Manila still low risk for COVID but may escalate to moderate soon
MANILA, Philippines — Independent pandemic monitor Octa Research said that while Metro Manila remains under the “low risk” classification for COVID-19, there is a possibility that the infection in the metropolis could cross the “moderate risk” threshold in the coming weeks, one of its research fellows told INQUIRER.net on Thursday.
“Our official position is that it is still under Low Risk but it could be moving to moderate risk very soon,” Octa Research fellow Guido David said in a message.
Asked when will the National Capital Region (NCR) cross the moderate risk threshold, David said: “It could be in 2 weeks or so, but this is not certain because it depends on the hospitalizations.”
DOH, in a statement on Thursday, also said that the NCR is still under low risk classification.
This, despite the fact that 11 cities in Metro Manila have shown a “continuous increase” in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks.
DOH explained that for a region to be classified under moderate risk, it should have a positive two-week growth rate (TWGR) and average daily attack rate (ADAR) of at least 6 average cases per day per 100,000 population, according to the DOH.
The DOH pointed out that the numbers in the region are still far from the said metrics.
“As of June 15, 2022 while NCR shows positive TWGR, its ADAR is still below 6 at less than 1 case per 100k population. NCR would require at least 818 cases daily for two weeks to reach an ADAR of 6 cases per 100k population,” the Health Department said.
“Furthermore, NCR’s HCUR remains to be at low risk. At this stage of the pandemic, infections are expected. Most of them will be asymptomatic, mild, or moderate – thanks to vaccination, boosters, and health protocols,” the DOH continued.
Only when the NCR becomes classified as moderate risk could the region be escalated to Alert Level 2.
“So long as these numbers remain low, we will stay at the current alert level while carefully monitoring the situation,” the DOH said.
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