Robredo supporters insist Google Trends indicate victory despite lagging in surveys
Leni Robredo —OVP FILE PHOTO
LAPU-LAPU CITY, Cebu — Supporters of Vice President Leni Robredo have insisted that Google Trends, which takes into account searches of entries related to presidential candidates, point toward a Robredo victory in contrast to what recent scientific surveys projected.
A statement from camps supporting Robredo’s presidential candidacy on Friday pointed to campaign strategist Alan German’s take on the Vice President constantly grabbing the most shares in terms of searches about a presidential bet.
German previously said that behavioral patterns predicted by Google Trends may be compared to reality show The Biggest Loser, where contestants may win a certain challenge for a day but may eventually lose by the end of the competition.
“To parallel, it shows you patterns of behavior such as how well your eating pattern and daily exercise routines among others. You may be the winner of that specific period, but if your opponent has better patterns of behavior than you, she will be the true winner,” German said in a statement sent by Robredo’s supporters.
“With behavior patterns available, one can predict who will be the real winner in the end. In the case of Philippine elections, who shall be the biggest winner,” he added.
Current Google Trends data which covers April 10 to 16 showed Robredo appearing in 47 percent of all searches about the top five presidential candidates in the 2022 national elections. Behind her is Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso and former senator Bongbong Marcos with 20 percent each.
This meant that Marcos’ number plummeted by nine percentage points, as he had a 29 percent share in a report made last April 6.
Comparing the numbers of Robredo, Marcos, and Moreno also showed that the incumbent Vice President topped the interest over time metric, which Google Trends describes as how popular a search term is for a specific period.
From April 15 to 22, Robredo got an average score of 59, while Moreno and Marcos got 24 and 23, respectively.
Over the months, Robredo has kept a huge lead over her rivals on search entries and interest based on Google Trends.
Marcos’ running mate and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio meanwhile got the most searches and highest interest among vice presidential bets. Latest data showed that Duterte-Carpio was also able to maintain her lead, but the gap between her and Robredo’s running mate Senator Francis Pangilinan narrowed.
Duterte-Carpio now appears in 46 percent of the searches while Pangilinan got 27 percent of the searches — compared to the 56-22 share last April 6.
READ: Google Trends: Leni, Sara are most searched bets
But while there are Robredo supporters who believe that Google Trends’ data on search entries are accurate — mentioning the case of other countries’ elections where Google Trends results seemed to mirror official election tallies — there are critics of the opposition who remind people to refrain from purely relying on Google Trends.
According to literary critic Katrina Stuart Santiago who was part of several campaign teams of national candidates in the past elections, it might be wrong to assume that Google Trends is indicative of who will win in an election, because it may be driven by artificial or amplified searches — which will result in bloated numbers.
Santiago stressed that Google does not reveal who are doing the searches for Robredo and all the other candidates.
“Google Trend numbers DO NOT tell you who is doing the searches. Armies on any side could be manipulating those numbers. Just like some armies might not care about Google because they’re topping the actual scientific surveys,” Santiago said in a Facebook post dated Wednesday.
“Yes, you want to find numbers to hold on to so that you can remain hopeful. But I think if you believe in the groundswell and rally numbers, the goal should be to create a communications strategy that creates massive diverse creative content out of that. Because what is hope when it’s based on questionable numbers?” she asked.
Santiago was referring to scientific surveys from polling firms that have released data that placed Robredo a far second behind Marcos.
No new surveys have been released, but Pulse Asia’s most recent poll — held from March 17 to 21 or just a month before Friday — showed Marcos was way ahead at 56 percent, compared to Robredo’s 24 percent.
This was despite Robredo’s score increasing by nine percentage points from the February edition, and Marcos losing four percentage points.
READ: Marcos still leads new Pulse Asia survey, but Robredo’s number rises by 9 points
But despite the huge gap, Robredo’s campaign team is adamant that the surveys have started reflecting the massive groundswell for the Vice President, as witnessed in mammoth rallies in several parts of the country — including some areas which are considered bailiwicks of her opponents.
Robredo last March 26 was able to gather over 100,000 supporters in Pasig City, despite surveys indicating that the National Capital Region was voting for Marcos.
Similarly, the Robredo camp held its biggest-ever rally, with supposedly over 220,000 participants trooping to Pampanga, which is the hometown province of former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
Arroyo and her Lakas-CMD party are supporting Marcos and Duterte.
READ: Groundswell of support reflected in Robredo’s survey spike, says spox
