Slim chance of cyclone for December, but Pagasa expects LPA before weekend

MANILA, Philippines — The chances of a tropical cyclone forming or entering the Philippine area of responsibility remains small, but state meteorologists expect a low pressure area (LPA) to cross the country’s landmass before the weekend.

Weather updates from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Tuesday showed that the expected LPA, according to its Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, would start moving around Thursday.

It may start building up east of Mindanao, then cross the southern portions of Visayas all the way to the West Philippine Sea.

“May possibility pa ba na magkaroon tayo ng bagyo bago matapos ang 2020, ang sagot po ng Pagasa dyan for this week, ay mababa pa.  Pero, meron tayong inaashan na low pressure area o mataas na tsansa ng pamumuo ng isang sama ng panahon sa loob ng ating area of responsibility,” weather specialist Benison Estareja said.

(Pagasa’s answer to questions whether there is a possibility that we encounter storms before 2020 ends, is that there is a low chance.  But we are expecting a low pressure area or a high chance of a weather disturbance’s buildup inside our area of responsibility.)

“Base po sa forecast ng Pagasa particularly the climatology division, posibleng may mabuo as early as Thursday or Friday dito sa silangan ng Mindanao, and then eventually over the weekend po ay tatawid ito […] afterwards tutungo dito sa may Sulu Sea and Palawan hanggang sa makalabas ito ng West Philippine Sea,” he added.

(Based on the forecasts of Pagasa particularly the climatology division, the low pressure area may form by Thursday or Friday east of Mindanao, and then over the weekend it would cross the country, then proceed towards the Sulu Sea and Palawan until it leaves through the West Philippine Sea.)

This means that a huge part of Visayas and Mindanao may experience rains from Friday up to the weekend, while areas in Luzon may also see the same conditions due to the combined effects of the northeast monsoon, tail end of a frontal system, and the easterlies.

Pagasa advises people doing outdoor activities to bring umbrellas to shield themselves from the rain, as it would be more likely approaching the weekend.

The last time the country had a tropical cyclone was in November, when Typhoon Ulysses brought immense flooding in Luzon, particularly in Metro Manila, Rizal, parts of Central Luzon, and Cagayan Valley.

Ulysses was part of a series of eight cyclones that entered the country from October 11 to November 12, which also includes Super Typhoon Rolly that wreaked havoc over Bicol Region.

Since then, Pagasa said that two more cyclones may enter the country, although chances were slim as the prevalent northeast monsoon or amihan prevented the buildup of warm, humid winds that contribute to the formation of storms.