Regional gaps widen as rice inflation hits Mindanao harder — analyst

MANILA, Philippines — Rice prices have risen far more sharply in some regions than in others, placing a heavier burden on households in parts of Mindanao, a data scientist said.

Dr. Alicor Panao, an Inquirer data scientist and associate professor at the University of the Philippines, cited Philippine Statistics Authority inflation data in his analysis.

“For households that rely on rice as a daily staple, these price differences quickly add up, stretching monthly budgets, especially for lower-income households,” Panao said.

Based on government data, rice inflation was 15.6% in May, indicating that rice prices were about 16% higher than a year earlier.

However, Panao said the average “somewhat conceals large differences across regions.”

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He noted that rice inflation in Metro Manila was 10.5%, while much higher increases were recorded in Soccsksargen at 27.5%, Caraga Region at 23.6%, Davao Region and Zamboanga Peninsula at 22.1%, and Northern Mindanao at 19.6%.

Several of the highest figures were concentrated in Mindanao, indicating that price pressures were uneven, he said.

Month-on-month data showed some easing between April and May 2026, with rice prices declining in areas such as Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Davao Region and Soccsksargen.

Panao said these monthly movements suggest short-term relief in select markets, but rice remained substantially more expensive than in May 2025 across all regions.

For instance, a kilo of rice that cost about P50 a year ago is now about P57 to P58 on the national average. However, in Soccsksargen, it is closer to P64, compared with about P55 in Metro Manila.

“Rice prices are politically salient because they are directly felt and easily attributed to government performance,” Panao said.

He added that the uneven burden of high rice prices across the Philippines affects how people assess government performance and broader economic conditions.

“Noticeably, the areas with the highest rice inflation rates coincide with those where public approval of the administration has tended to be weaker in recent surveys,” he said.

READ: SWS: Marcos net satisfaction rating at -15, lowest ever

As of March, Marcos’ net satisfaction fell to a record low of -15 from -3 in November 2025. In Mindanao, it was at a bad -40 from a poor -29.

READ: Analyst tracks why Marcos ratings sank most in Mindanao

The latest SWS data showed net satisfaction toward Marcos was highest in Balance Luzon, but only at a neutral +2, followed by the Visayas at a poor -15 and Metro Manila at a bad -31.

Compared with November 2025, net satisfaction with Marcos fell by 11 points from a moderate +13 in Balance Luzon, 17 points from a neutral +2 in the Visayas, and 14 points from a poor -17 in Metro Manila. /dm