El Niño conditions ‘now present’ in tropical Pacific — Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific, with an 80 percent chance of developing into a full-blown El Niño event, the state weather bureau said Tuesday.

In a statement, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the looming El Niño may persist until early 2027.

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“[Pagasa] reports that El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific. In May 2026, the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reached the +0.5°C threshold,” Pagasa said.

“Additionally, most climate models suggest there is over an 80 percent probability that this will develop into a full-blown El Niño event, which is likely to persist until early 2027,” it added.

Pagasa urged government agencies and the public to take appropriate preparedness and response measures to mitigate the possible impacts of El Niño, especially in areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall and flooding during the Habagat season and those prone to below-normal rainfall conditions.

As defined by Pagasa, El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and is characterized by warmer-than-average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and generally cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures over the Philippine Sea.

It typically increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, making dry spells and drought more probable.

However, Pagasa noted that above-normal rainfall conditions may still occur over the western part of the country during the southwest monsoon, locally known as the Habagat season. /mcm