OCTA Research says new COVID-cases in Metro Manila ‘have accelerated’

Digital interpretation of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant INQUIRER.net file photo

MANILA, Philippines — New COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila “have accelerated” as the region’s virus reproduction number increased in the last week, the Octa Research said Tuesday.

Octa Research fellow Guido David told INQUIRER.net that Metro Manila’s reproduction number for June 8-14 is at 1.59, higher than the 1.27 recorded from June 1-7.

David, in a Twitter post, also said: “New COVID-19 cases have accelerated with a reproduction number of 1.59 and numbers are likely to exceed initial forecasts.”

The reproduction number (r-naught) indicates how infectious a disease is. For instance, an r-naught of 1 means that each carrier can transmit the virus to one person. So the current r-naught of 1.59 would mean that each existing infection would cause more than one new infection.

Octa Research also predicted that there will be 250 new cases in Metro Manila on Wednesday, according to David.

It likewise predicted earlier that new COVID-19 infections in Metro Manila may increase to as much as 400 to 500 cases a day by the end of June, citing current trends of transmission.

The government had announced that Omicron subvariants BA.5, BA.4, and BA.2.12.1. have entered the country.

David previously said that the new subvariants may cause another surge in COVID-19 cases once they enter the country, but it would not be as high as the cases recorded in January due to the Omicron variant.

READ: OCTA: Surge seen if Omicron subvariant detected in PH; up to 100K active cases projected

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