DOH says NCR may see sharp decline in COVID cases if Alert Level 4 stays

DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire talks with reporters via Zoom meeting in this file photo taken on April 23, 2020. INQUIRER.net file photo / Daphne Galvez

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Health (DOH) projected around 10,000 active cases in Metro Manila by October 31, if the capital region remains under Alert Level 4 with a short detection to isolation time, Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said on Monday.

“If our detection to isolation time is maintained at four days, active cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may decrease to 10,100 cases by October 31, if Alert Level 4 is continued while we may expect about 13,471 to 14,672 active cases when Alert Level 3 will be imposed,” Vergeire shared during the DOH forum.

“However, if detection to isolation time is again prolonged [to six days], active cases may decrease to 11,779 cases under Alert Level 4 and an increase up to 16,332 to 17,967 active cases if Alert Level 3 is imposed,” she added.

As of October 1, actual active cases stood at 29,334 in Metro Manila.

Meanwhile, severe and critical cases may likewise lower, should Alert Level 4 be retained in the capital region.

“In addition, when our four-day detection to isolation time is maintained, severe and critical cases may decrease to 527 to 849 cases by the end of the month if Alert Level 4 is continued while 703 to 1,235 severe and critical cases are expected if NCR is de-escalated to Alert Level 3,” Vergeire noted.

“However, if detection to isolation time increases again, severe and critical cases may decrease to 616 to 992 cases by October [31], if Alert Level 4 is continued and may increase to 855 to 1,516 severe and critical cases if Alert Level 3 is imposed,” she said.

Severe and critical actual cases in Metro Manila stood at 1,674 and 874, respectively, as of October 1.

Further, Vergeire stressed that the projections show the importance of lowering the detection to isolation time to decrease COVID-19 transmission.

“While we see a decrease in case projections, we want to see an optimal decrease and this will be possible by further shortening detection to isolation time,” Vergeire noted.

As of Sunday, the country’s active cases were recorded at 90,927.

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