What drives them to seek VP post?

WHAT is driving the half-dozen politicians running to be a “spare tire” in the next six years?

Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr., a veteran politician, professed to be puzzled: “I don’t really know what’s in it for them.”

Barely a week before the deadline for the filing of candidacy certificates for the 2016 elections, at least six candidates are expected to be candidates for Vice President (VP)—Senators Francis Escudero, Antonio Trillanes IV, Alan Peter Cayetano, Gringo Honasan and Bongbong Marcos, and Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo—more than double the declared candidates for President, Vice President Jejomar Binay, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas and Sen. Grace Poe.

‘Low risk, high reward’

According to some lawmakers and analysts, running for Vice President has “become a low-risk, high-reward” proposition, especially for Escudero, Trillanes and Cayetano, who have nothing to lose but their pride (we assume that they would not be using personal funds but money raised from campaign supporters) because they will still be in power with three more years of their Senate terms remaining after the 2016 elections.

Antipolo Rep. Romeo Acop said that he cannot blame the four, midterm senators because they had an opportunity to go for a high post with very little risk.

Acop said that the four senators see the VP run not only as a means to be “a heartbeat away” from the presidency, but to boost their political stock as well.

“Most of them are still young and running for VP will only raise their awareness [quotient] among the public. It’s a good investment,” said Acop.

He said Marcos and Robredo would run the biggest risk because they would both be out of power if they lose.

Stepping stone

But Sen. Serge Osmeña disagreed. “Running for any national position is never low-risk. It is very taxing on the body, the wallet and the organization. People run for Vice President because it is seen as a stepping stone to the presidency,” he said.

According to Osmeña, running as an independent or under a party does not matter at the national level. Which should explain why three members of the country’s oldest party, the Nacionalista, are gunning for a useless position—Trillanes, Cayetano and Marcos.

Acop said Marcos had another motivation for running for VP. “Of the six VP candidates, only Marcos can boast of a solid support base—the solid North or Ilocano vote and the Waray vote,” said Acop.

Marcos is from Ilocos Norte while his mother belongs to the influential Romualdez political clan of Leyte province. Four of the VP bets—Escudero, Robredo, Honasan and Trillanes are from the Bicol region while Cayetano has no political bailiwick to speak of (his biggest asset so to speak is being the son of the late Sen. Rene Cayetano).

National Unity Party secretary general Reginald Velasco said that in a five or six-cornered fight, the one with a solid support base would have the advantage.

Velasco said that running for VP rather than President was part of the gamesmanship in politics. “Why aspire for a high post with no chance when you can be a heartbeat or impeachment or disqualification vote away from being the President?” asked Velasco.

He said the race for President was too tight, too stressful and required so much resources and horse trading that running for VP might turn out to be the better option.

“Why is running for VP the better way to the presidency? The next President will either be the oldest in history or will be most vulnerable to an impeachment or disqualification case,” said Velasco.

Velasco pointed out that Binay and Duterte will be over 70 years old if they win in 2016. He said at least three of the presidential bets are vulnerable to being impeached or disqualified—Binay will be hounded by corruption charges; critics are likely to bring back the victims of Duterte’s alleged death squad; and Poe is likely be the subject of disqualification cases throughout her term.