Bicol braces for typhoon after 8-year lull

Storm clouds hover above Mt. Isarog in Camarines Sur on Monday, a day before tropical storm Glenda was expected to make landfall in Bicol region. Photo by Juan Escandor, Inquirer Southern Luzon

NAGA CITY, Philippines—Eight years after Super Typhoon “Reming” killed about 1,000 people in a destructive strike across Bicol and nearby provinces, Bicolanos on Monday braced for another howler called “Glenda.”

Typhoon Glenda is expected to make landfall on Tuesday anywhere on the eastern seaboard of Sorsogon, Albay, Catanduanes and the two Camarines provinces, as Metro Manila itself came under alert for rains and strong winds that may hit the capital early on Wednesday.

Packing maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometers per hour near the center, Glenda—estimated to be 470 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes—on Monday intensified as it churned westward threatening Bicol, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on its website.

Reming was the last major weather disturbance to hit Bicol with winds of more than 200 kph, according to typhoon specialist Michael Padua, senior typhoon specialist of the global private weather company MeteoGroup.

Strangely, Glenda would occur on the same dates when Typhoon “Bebeng” wreaked havoc in Camarines Sur in July 1983, Padua said.

He said that based on four models from international weather organizations, Glenda would make landfall somewhere between Catanduanes and Caramoan (in Camarines Sur) or down on the eastern part of Sorsogon.

Typhoon path predicted

MeteoGroup is a private group supported by the Aboitiz Group of companies with a goal of setting up 1,000 automated weather stations around the country to provide weather information to companies, local government units and residents.

Padua was recognized for correctly predicting the path of Typhoon “Unding” in 2004 that directly hit Naga City.

He uses four typhoon models—the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (WRS), Global Forecast System (GFS), Navy Global Environmental Model (Navgem), all based in the United States, and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—in making his forecasts.

Padua said all the four models showed that Glenda would make landfall in Bicol with some variations on the exact site.

28-31 kph

Glenda may move slightly south and hit Sorsogon or Albay but if it maintains its track, Catanduanes and the two Camarines provinces would be hit, he said.

Using satellite data, Padua said Glenda was expected to be close to Catanduanes and the Maqueda Channel early on Tuesday morning and make landfall on Tuesday afternoon.

He said Glenda was fast moving at 28-31 kph with a rain diameter of about 500 km, wind diameter of 390 km and maximum gustiness of 120 kph.

“My forecast [for] Tuesday is that the wind could have sustained gustiness of 130-140 kph which could reach to 150-160 kph,”Padua said.

“It could damage plantation areas and weak structures [and be] classified as Category 1, compared to Super Typhoon Yolanda, which was classified as Category 4,”he said.

Storm surge

Padua said flooding was expected in low-lying areas and that the storm surge could reach up to 1 meter in height, compared to Yolanda, which reached 5 m.

Classes have been suspended in the Bicol Region while hundreds of passengers have been stranded as relief officials prepared to evacuate residents in flood- and landslide-prone areas.

The Virac Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (MDRRMC), headed by Capt. Ivanhoe Arcilla, said officials assumed Glenda would make a direct hit on the town and warnings had been sent to coastal areas to prevent fishermen from venturing out to sea.

Virac Vice Mayor Roy Laynes said the MDRRMC had authorized the procurement of 100 bags of rice from the National Food Authority (NFA), as well as noodles and canned goods from a supermarket.

In Bicol ports, some 820 passengers were stranded on Monday in Tabaco City in Albay, Bulan and Matnog towns in Sorsogon and Cataingan in Masbate.

In Albay, classes were suspended at all levels as were classes in Camarines Sur and Naga City.

Pangasinan at risk

In Pangasinan province, officials said Glenda might cross the province on Wednesday on its way to the West Philippine Sea.

Melchito Castro, Ilocos regional director of the Office of Civil Defense, said everyone must be alert, especially those living in coastal areas and near river banks.

“Eastern Pangasinan towns are also at risk because the typhoon is coming from that direction. It can cause landslides and flash floods,” Castro said.

“We should not be complacent because we do not know yet how much water Glenda will be dumping into the province,” Castro said.

Avenix Arenas, spokesperson of the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, said the provincial government was ready to carry out any evacuation.

In Aurora province, Gov. Gerardo Noveras convened relief officials to prepare for any emergency.

Food assistance

In Manila, the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) has prepared food and nonfood assistance to augment resources of local government units.

The DSWD said its field offices in Northern and Central Luzon had prepositioned 78,608 family food packs for immediate distribution to local government units.

Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman said the field offices had 209,875 assorted food items and 101,326 nonfood items.

“Social welfare and development teams at the municipal level are now on the field to monitor the extent of the typhoon,” Soliman said.

Blue alert

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council has issued a “blue alert” requiring half of the personnel of all regional and municipal disaster risk reduction management offices to be at their posts.–With reports from Fernan Gianan, Juan Escandor Jr. Edgar Alejo and Shiena Barrameda, Inquirer Southern Luzon; Gabriel Cardinoza, Inquirer Northern Luzon; Tonette Orejas, Inquirer Central Luzon; Carmel Loise Matus, Inquirer Visayas; and Julie M. Aurelio and Jerry E. Esplanada in Manila

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