Aquino’s pick key to coalition unity

With President Aquino entering the “last two minutes” of his administration, his allies believe that his “anointed” in the 2016 elections will hold the key to keeping the majority coalition intact for, and dominant in, the next national polls. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

With President Aquino entering the “last two minutes” of his administration, his allies believe that his “anointed” in the 2016 elections will hold the key to keeping the majority coalition intact for, and dominant in, the next national polls.

Iloilo City Rep. Jerry Treñas, who heads the Visayan bloc in the House of Representatives, figures that the President’s enormous popularity will make him a potent kingmaker in the next presidential elections.

“The President continues to enjoy high trust ratings and whoever he chooses as his successor will be a force to reckon with in 2016,” Treñas said in a phone interview.

Based on the Social Weather Stations (SWS) report released last Dec. 28, Aquino got an average net satisfaction rating of “very good,” or plus 55 percent, in 2013, or two percentage points above his average of plus 53 percent net rating in 2011 and 2012 but seven points off his plus 62 percent net rating in 2010.

The SWS noted that the President managed to maintain the “very good” rating in most parts of the country, in the rural areas and in the ABC and E income classes, but slipped to a merely “good” rating in Metro Manila, urban areas and the D class.

Could choose outsider

Treñas said that the President’s choice would be the key to keeping the ruling Liberal Party’s coalition with other parties intact for the 2016 elections.

But he did not discount the possibility that Aquino could very well choose a presidential candidate from outside the LP.

“It’s really not for me to say but I hope that his choice will come from us (the LP). But you know in politics, anything is possible… Only time will tell,” said Treñas.

Anointed one the key

Isabela Rep. Giorgidi Aggabao, a member of the Nationalist People’s Coalition, said the President needs to anoint a successor to ensure continuity in government policy.

“The President has set out a good course for the country, as evidenced by our stellar economic growth,” he said.

Aggabao said that the majority coalition—composed of the ruling Liberal Party of Aquino, the NPC led by businessman Danding Cojuangco, the Nacionalista Party led by ex-Sen. Manuel Villar, the LDP led by ex-Sen. Edgardo Angara and the Akbayan party-list group—would hold fast or fragment, depending on the President’s anointed one.

“Major political players within the coalition will bolt if they see [that] the common candidate is unwinnable. There is no secret to that. The challenge for the coalition is to hook a credible candidate for president that has excellent chances of winning,” he said.

Endorsing successors

“Based on past election results, exiting presidents have a spotty record in choosing the candidates to succeed them. While the ruling Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino chose the late Ramon Mitra as its presidential bet, the late President Corazon Aquino endorsed her defense secretary Fidel Ramos, who went on to win the presidential elections in 1992.”

Ramos, in turn, recommended the ruling Lakas party’s Jose de Venecia who lost to Joseph Estrada in 1998, and immediate past President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo endorsed Lakas-Kampi’s Gilbert Teodoro, who was beaten handily by his cousin, Aquino, in 2010.

LP has best odds

Eastern Samar Rep. and LP spokesman Ben Evardone said that with or without its coalition partners, the LP would have the best odds of retaining its hold on Malacañang through 2016 because of its popular leader and its size as the biggest political party in the country.

“I think the President will be a hard act to follow but I believe those who believe in him will also believe in his choice,” he said.

But he said the LP has to evolve into a real principled party, not a party of convenience like Lakas, the LDP and other previously dominant political parties.

“The LP should draw lessons from the debacle of major political parties, it has to reinforce its nontraditional status,” said Evardone, who was one of the dozens of Lakas-Kampi members who jumped ship to the LP in the final weeks before the May 2010 elections.

Evardone said the LP has its work cut out for it in the President’s so-called “last two minutes” and should be projecting itself as an antitraditional (anti-trapo) political party and anticorruption advocate.

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