Marcos ratings weaker where rice inflation is high — analyst
MANILA, Philippines — Net satisfaction toward President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. tended to be weaker in regions where rice prices rose the most, a data scientist said.
Dr. Alicor Panao, an INQUIRER data scientist and associate professor at the University of the Philippines, cited Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) inflation figures and Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey results in his analysis.
“Rice prices are politically salient because they are directly felt and easily attributed to government performance,” Panao said.
“For households that rely on rice as a daily staple, these price differences quickly add up, stretching monthly budgets, especially for lower-income households,” he said.
Based on government data, rice inflation was 15.6% in May, indicating that rice prices were about 16% higher than last year.
However, Panao said this average “somewhat conceals large differences across regions.” He noted that rice inflation in Metro Manila was 10.5%, while much higher increases were recorded in Soccsksargen at 27.5%, Caraga Region at 23.6%, Davao Region and Zamboanga Peninsula at 22.1%, and Northern Mindanao at 19.6%.
Several of the highest figures were concentrated in Mindanao, indicating that price pressures were uneven, he said.
Month-on-month data showed some easing between April and May 2026, with rice prices declining in areas such as Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Davao Region and Soccsksargen.
Panao said these monthly movements suggest short-term relief in select markets, but rice remained substantially more expensive than in May 2025 across all regions.
For instance, a kilo of rice that cost about P50 a year ago is now about P57 to P58 on national average. However, in Soccsksargen, it is closer to P64, compared to about P55 in Metro Manila.
During his 2022 presidential campaign, Marcos promised to bring the price of rice down to P20 a kilo.
Panao said that while there are different considerations behind public opinion, the uneven burden of high rice prices across the Philippines “affects how voters view the government.”
READ: SWS: Marcos net satisfaction rating at -15, lowest ever
As of March, Marcos’ net satisfaction fell to a record low of -15 from -3 in November 2025. In Mindanao, it was at bad -40 from poor -29.
READ: Analyst tracks why Marcos ratings sank most in Mindanao
The latest SWS data showed net satisfaction toward Marcos was highest in Balance Luzon, but only at neutral +2, followed by the Visayas at poor -15 and Metro Manila at bad -31.
Compared to November 2025, net satisfaction with Marcos fell by 11 points from moderate +13 in Balance Luzon, 17 points from neutral +2 in the Visayas, and 14 points from poor -17 in Metro Manila. /dm
