Endless stream of storms draining PH GDP, home incomes

TYPHOON composite image from Inquirer file photos

MANILA, Philippines—Typhoon Nika (international name: Toraji), the 14th storm to hit the Philippines in 2024, has not yet left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), or even the landmass of Luzon, when a new one was seen to enter and threaten the island’s northern region.

As the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on the day Nika made landfall in Dilasag, Aurora, Ofel (international name: Usagi) will enter PAR on Tuesday (November 12). It did and was seen at 1,125 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas at 3 a.m. on that day.

A few days later on Thursday (November 14), Ofel intensified into a super typhoon and made landfall in Baggao, Cagayan at 1:30 p.m., prompting the evacuation of thousands of individuals, most of them still reeling from the devastation left by Typhoon Marce (international name: Yinxing), which hit the province on Nov. 7.

READ: Ofel makes landfall over Cagayan, weakens into typhoon

But as Ofel weakened, a new storm, Pepito (international name: Many-yi), entered PAR, and is expected to make landfall “at peak intensity” over the eastern coast of Central and/or Southern Luzon on weekend. Pagasa said Pepito may intensify into a typhoon within the next 12 hours.

READ: Pepito enters PAR, may become a typhoon

So how much more can the Philippines, or Luzon, take?

Typhoon’s way

According to the website Science Direct, an average of 20 typhoons, or 25 percent of typhoons worldwide, barrel their way into the Philippines every year. Out of the 20, five are considered disastrous, while an average of nine makes landfall.

GRAPHIC: Ed Lustan/INQUIRER.net

Nika, which severely battered the provinces of Aurora and Isabela is the 14th to enter PAR this year after Aghon, Butchoy, Carina, Dindo, Enteng, Ferdie, Gener, Helen, Igme, Julian, Kristine, Leon, and Marce.

READ: Nika devastates Isabela, Aurora

But while there were fewer typhoons that have made their way to PAR over the past few years, Pagasa pointed out that those that do have become stronger.

According to the latest World Risk Index, the Philippines is still the world’s most disaster-prone country for the 16th straight year, with a score of 46.91 in 2024 from 46.86 last year.

This prompted Environment Secretary Ma. Antonia Yulo Loyzaga to say that the Department of Environment and Natural Resources has been working “strategically”, especially with local governments, to protect lives and livelihood.

PH economy hit

This year, before Nika’s passage through northern Luzon, 13 typhoons have already left over P30 billion worth of damage in agriculture and infrastructure, based on data compiled by INQFocus from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

Kristine and Leon, which wrecked the Bicol Region and Calabarzon, and the province of Batanes, left the most damage at P17.60 billion and 160 people dead, the government said.

READ: Don’t care about climate change? Wait until it hits you in the face

Based on research conducted by the Asian Development Bank, strong typhoons are likely to reduce economic activity by almost three percent, while frequent and low-damaging ones are expected to cause one percent reduction.

The severity, however, differs widely between regions, with Eastern Visayas and Cagayan Valley expected to have the highest losses, the ADB said in its study that was based on evidence from nightlight intensity.

Some years back, the ADB shared, too, that typhoons cost the Philippines some $20 billion in 1990 to 2020. These included some of the strongest typhoons that hit the country: Rolly, Yolanda, Ferdie, Juan, and Iliang.

Loss of lives, livelihood

Since Aghon, the first to hit the Philippines this year, 266 people have died of typhoon-related causes: Aghon (6), Butchoy & Carina (48), Enteng (21), Ferdie, Gener, Helen & Igme (25), Julian (5), Kristine & Leon (160), and Marce (1).

But typhoons do not only claim lives, as their wrath damages livelihood, too.

Household incomes have dropped by seven percent on average across the Philippines because of typhoons, based on a new peer-reviewed study from international research organization Climate Analytics.

READ: Typhoons and COVID: How much more can PH take?

It stated that in some instances, in some provinces such as Surigao del Norte, Maguindanao, Batangas and Cavite, typhoons reduced household income by more than 20 percent.

As previously pointed out by World Bank’s lead economist Souleymane Coulibaly, climate change, which reveals itself through rising temperatures, increasing sea levels, more intense droughts and stronger typhoons, will significantly threaten the economy.