Pagasa raises La Niña Watch as forecasts show early onset

MANILA, Philippines — The state weather bureau said on Thursday that it has raised the La Niña Watch in the country.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), the forecasts indicate that the La Niña season may develop sooner, from June to August 2024.

“[M]odel forecasts suggest an increasing probability of La Niña to develop in the June-July-August (JJA) 2024 season. With this development, the Pagasa Enso(El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Warning System is now raised to La Niña Watch,” Pagasa said.

The Pagasa added that it raised the La Niña Watch as there is a probability of 55 percent that the weather phenomenon will develop within six months.

The La Niña phenomenon is the cold phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or the phenomenon involving climate and the waters in the Pacific region.

The pre-developing signs of the La Niña weather phenomenon feature a below-normal rainfall weather outlook, while the Pagasa added that the normal onset of the rainy season may be delayed with the current El Niño.

“Pre-developing La Niña, historically is characterized by below normal rainfall, therefore, the possibility of a slight delay on the onset of the rainy season is likely with the combined effects of the ongoing El Niño,” it added.

The Pagasa said that by the end of March, 15 provinces may experience dry conditions, 22 may experience dry spells, and 30 provinces may experience drought nationwide.

In comparison, it said that for February, 24 provinces had drought, 16 had dry spells, and 10 had dry conditions.

The state weather bureau added that it will continue to monitor the current weather phenomena and advised the public and other government agencies to take necessary precautions.

“Pagasa will continue to monitor the ongoing El Niño, its effect on the local climate, and the possibility of La Niña,” it said.

“Consequently, all government agencies concerned and the general public are encouraged to take precautionary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of the said phenomena,” it added.