Pagasa: 10-15 tropical cyclones possible until October as rainy season begins
MANILA, Philippines— A day after it declared the onset of the rainy season, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Saturday predicted that 10-15 tropical cyclones may affect the country from June to October.
Weather specialist Benison Estareja said some of the cyclones may make landfall particularly in Luzon and Visayas, but that others may only enhance the southwest monsoon or “habagat”, especially in western parts of the country.
Estareja added that Pagasa may declare an El Niño phenomenon within this month or in July, but that this does not mean decreased rainfall.
Extreme weather events such as strong storms and rains are still possible in the third quarter of the year, and it is only towards the end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 that below normal rainfall may be felt, according to the weather bureau.
Estareja likewise said that while Pagasa is no longer monitoring any storm, it has spotted a cloud cluster east of Mindanao that may become a low pressure area (LPA) within the next 48 hours.
“Pag naging LPA po ito, maaaring manatili lamang ito sa ating karagatan sa susunod po na dalawa hanggang tatlong araw pa at posibleng pumasok early next week. So patuloy po natin ito imo-monitor,” assured Estareja.
(Should this become an LPA, it may possibly stay over the sea in the next two to three days and may enter early next week. So we will continue to monitor this.)
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms that may trigger flooding and landslides are possible in the western sections of central and southern Luzon— including large parts of Mimaropa (Mindoro Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan) Cavite, Batangas, Zambales, Bataan, and Metro Manila.
Meanwhile, Central Luzon, the remaining parts of Calabarzon (Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon) and the entire Bicol region can expect slightly cloudy to cloudy skies.
Estareja added that sunny skies will prevail over the northern parts of Luzon in the morning, but that hot and humid weather will hit the area by noontime.
Large parts of Luzon can also expect possible localized thunderstorms at this time, especially in La Union, Benguet, Calabarzon, and Metro Manila.
Light to moderate with sometimes heavy rains due to the “habagat” will also hit Western Visayas on Saturday afternoon to evening, said Estareja, while the rest of Visayas can expect slightly cloudy skies with chances of scattered rains.
Mindanao can expect fair weather exceptSulu, Tawi Tawi, Dinagat Islands, and Siargao Islands.
There are also chances of localized thunderstorms, however, in the Davao region, Bukidnon, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur.
These have nothing to do with a storm or “habagat”, clarified Estareja.
No gale warnings were raised over any of the country’s seaboards.
Forecast temperature range in key cities / areas on Saturday
Metro Manila: 25 to 34 degrees Celsius
Baguio City: 17 to 23 degrees Celsius
Laoag City: 26 to 33 degrees Celsius
Tuguegarao: 26 to 37 degrees Celsius
Legazpi City: 26 to 32 degrees Celsius
Puerto Princesa City: 25 to 32 degrees Celsius
Tagaytay: 24 to 29 degrees Celsius
Kalayaan Islands: 26 to 33 degrees Celsius
Iloilo City: 26 to 30 degrees Celsius
Cebu: 26 to 31 degrees Celsius
Tacloban City: 26 to 32 degrees Celsius
Cagayan De Oro City: 26 to 32 degrees Celsius
Zamboanga City: 25 to 34 degrees Celsius
Davao City: 25 to 33 degrees Celsius
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