Metro Manila's COVID-19 reproduction number slightly up — Octa | Inquirer News

Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number slightly up — Octa

/ 09:54 AM June 07, 2022
Philippines reverts to moderate risk status for COVID-19

FILE PHOTO: A family rides past a vaccination facility at the Quirino Grandstand for a picnic at Luneta in Manila City, a day before Metro Manila reverted to Alert Level 3 following a spike in COVID-19 cases in January this year due to the Omicron variant. INQUIRER/MARIANNE BERMUDEZ

MANILA, Philippines — Independent pandemic monitor Octa Research on Tuesday marked a slight increase in the reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, but said the capital region remained under the “low risk” classification.

Octa research fellow Guido David said the current reproduction number in the National Capital Region has increased to 1.24 as of May 31 to June 6, compared to the metropolis’ R0 of 1.08 from May 24 to 30.


The R0 (pronounced as r-naught) indicates how infectious a disease is. For instance, an R0 of 1 means that each carrier can transmit the virus to one person. The current R0 of 1.24 meant that each existing infection would cause more than one new infection.

The positivity rate also slightly increased from 1.5 percent from May 24 to 30, to 1.6 percent to May 31 to June 6, according to David. Metro Manila’s current positive rate is well within the World Health Organization’s ideal positivity rate set at five percent.


David also said the NCR had a 10 percent increase in infections from 78 cases (May 24 to 30) to 86 cases (May 31 to June 6).

So far, the new Omicron subvariants BA.5, BA.4 and BA.2.12.1. have entered the country, according to the Department of Health. These sub lineages are concerning health experts considering their high-transmissibility compared to their other cousin variants, Delta, Beta or the Wuhan variant.

READ: PH detects local transmission of Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1

David previously said that the new subvariants may cause another surge in COVID-19 cases once it entered the country, but it would not be as high as the cases recorded in January.

As of Monday, the Philippines recorded a total of 3,691,724 cases of the new coronavirus, including 2,459 active cases, 3,628,809 recoveries and 60,456 deaths, according to DOH.


OCTA: Surge seen if Omicron subvariant detected in PH; up to 100K active cases projected


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TAGS:  Guido David, Department of Health, Metro Manila, OCTA Research, Omicron subvariants
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