Metro Manila's COVID cases may drop to less than 500 by Valentine's Day — OCTA | Inquirer News

Metro Manila’s COVID cases may drop to less than 500 by Valentine’s Day — OCTA

/ 07:47 AM January 26, 2022

DRIVE AND JAB While COVID-19 infections are slowly declining in Metro Manila, drive-thru vaccination sites, like this one at SM North in Quezon City, continue to receive people wanting to get booster shots. —NIÑO JESUS ORBETA

MANILA, Philippines — The number of new COVID-19 cases per day in Metro Manila could decrease to just below 500 by Valentine’s Day as the reproduction number of coronavirus cases dropped from 0.91 to 0.71, according to independent analytics group OCTA Research.

“Actuals are still tracking below Jan. 20 projections. At this rate, new cases in the NCR (National Capital Region) could go below 500 by Feb. 14. Reproduction number now 0.71 in NCR,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said over Twitter on Tuesday night.


Reproduction number is the average number of new COVID-19 cases that may stem from one positive case. David earlier said that the ideal reproduction number is less than one to indicate decreased transmission.

The latest projection of new cases in Metro Manila was lower than the figures earlier projected by OCTA. On Friday last week, David said that new COVID-19 cases in the region may be less than 1,000 per day by February 14 and less than 500 by the end of February if the current trend continues.


Metro Manila recorded 2,751 new COVID-19 cases out of 17,677 additional infections in the country on Tuesday. David said this is within OCTA’s projection of 2,500 to 3,000 cases in the region for the same day.

The capital region currently has 63,044 active cases of COVID-19 while the entire country has 247,451 active cases of the disease.

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TAGS:  Guido David, coronavirus Philippines, COVID-19 reproduction number, Metro Manila, OCTA Research
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