OCTA: COVID-19 cases in NCR may drop to less than 1,000 by Valentine’s Day

(FILE) Medical workers at the Justice Jose Abad Santos General Hospital in Manila check oxygen tanks as they brace for an increase in admission due to a spike in infections in the National Capital Region after the Christmas and New Year holidays. —MARIANNE BERMUDEZ

MANILA, Philippines — COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila may drop to less than 1,000 per day by Valentine’s Day and less than 500 by the end of February if the current trend continues, independent analytics group OCTA Research said Friday.

“If the projections come true, we should have less than 1k new cases per day in the NCR (National Capital Region) by Valentine’s and less than 500 by end of February,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said in a tweet.

The projections, he said, are based on “current patterns.”

Presented at Go Negosyo Townhall. Projections for new cases in the NCR, based on CURRENT PATTERNS. If the projections come true, we should have less than 1k new cases per day in the NCR by Valentine's and less than 500 by end of February. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @ali_sotto pic.twitter.com/f4EVg88l4n

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 21, 2022

Meanwhile, David also reported that new COVID-19 cases outside the NCR Plus have been rising, from less than 4,000 on January 12 to almost 12,000 on January 20.

He noted that this was a 200 percent increase in just eight days.

New Cases Outside NCR Plus has been increasing, from less than 4k on January 12 to almost 12k by January 20, a 200% increase in 8 days. Let's continue to comply with health protocols. Stay safe everyone. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @News5PH @allangatus @dzrhnews @dwiz882 @ali_sotto pic.twitter.com/XnozB03Vax

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 21, 2022

While COVID-19 cases seem plateauing in Metro Manila, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire stressed that further study is needed to confirm if cases are dropping.

According to Vergeire, the positivity rate in Metro Manila is still high. She said the public should also consider other limitations during the surge of cases. For instance, she noted that other people who experience symptoms only use antigen tests or just quarantine themselves, and are thus not included in the tally.

The country logged 31,173 new COVID-19 cases while Metro Manila recorded 9,455 new infections on Thursday. Based on the tracker of the Department of Health, the country currently has 275,364 active cases of the disease, including 109,503 in the capital region.

/MUF