OCTA warns of uptick in NCR positivity rate

Screengrab from Pandesal Forum-Kamuning Bakery Cafe Facebook Live

Independent research group OCTA on Friday said the COVID-19 positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) “increased slightly” and warned that it could mark “a change in the trend” of declining cases.

The positivity rate—a measure of the spread of COVID-19 in a given area—refers to the percentage of people who test positive out of the total number tested during a certain period. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a positivity rate of below 5 percent to indicate that coronavirus transmission is under control.

In a tweet on Friday, OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David noted an “uptick” in the NCR’s positivity rate, which he said was at its lowest at “0.62 from Dec. 12 to 18.”

From Dec. 16 to Dec. 22, it was 0.77 percent, he added.

The increase “may be dismissed as merely an effect of the holidays,” David said. But he also warned that “this could also be the beginning of a change in the trend.”

In its case bulletin on Friday, the Department of Health (DOH) reported a higher positivity rate of 1.4 percent based on test results nationwide, from 1.1 percent on Thursday.

The latest figure is based on 400 positive cases out of 28,561 who were tested on Wednesday.

In Metro Manila, the “uptick is [still] not a cause for panic,” David said, but he urged the public to “continue to follow public health standards while enjoying the holidays.”

In another tweet, he said the capital region remained at very low risk and that “we are just watching if the trend continues.”

Virus case update

“Due to [the] decreased testing over the holiday season, we will be unable to have a clear picture of the situation until the first week of January 2022,” he added.

The DOH bulletin on Friday logged 310 new cases, bringing the total to 2,838,032 since the start of the pandemic. The latest figures did not include seven laboratories that failed to submit data.

There were 9,321 active cases, of which 3,295 were mild; 474 were asymptomatic; 3,382 were moderate, 1,795 were severe; and 375 were critical.

There were 227 more recoveries, which brought the total number of survivors to 2,777,661.But 69 more died of COVID-19, pushing the death toll to 51,050.There were only 10 fatalities this month, while the rest were between February and November, the DOH said.