Despite possible uptick in COVID-19 cases in December, Octa has positive outlook

MANILA, Philippines — Despite a possible uptick in COVID-19 cases in December due to increased mobility in the country, independent group Octa Research sees a positive outlook next month.

During Thursday’s Laging Handa briefing, Octa member Professor Ranjit Rye noted that there could be an increase in COVID-19 infections. However, they projected that surges may not occur with the continued rollout of the national vaccination program.

“Are we going to see an uptick in December? It’s possible ho, may uptick ho lalo na ho kasi nag-increase na mobility. Napakarami na hong tao nasa labas,” Rye explained.

(Are we going to see an uptick in December? It’s possible, especially since we saw increased mobility. Many people are going outside.)

“Pero dahil inaasahan namin na marami sa ating mga kababayan lalo na sa NCR ay bakunado na that we won’t see the surges that we saw over the last few months dito sa National Capital Region nung March at ‘yung very vicious surge we experienced which started last July,” he further said.

(But because we expect that many Filipinos especially in NCR are vaccinated, we won’t see the surges that we saw over the last few months in the National Capital Region last March and the very vicious surge we experienced which started last July.)

Rye hoped that there would not be a need for massive regional lockdowns.

Despite the possible uptick projected, Octa has a positive outlook for December in the entire country, assuming that the downward trend remains.

“So far, if the trend holds, mukhang kaya natin mag-[alert] (it seems we can downgrade to) level 1 by December, and hopefully the trend will hold,” Rye said, stressing the importance of the continued vaccination program.

“And so, we’re thinking or projecting na (that) things over in the next few weeks will be more predictable and calculable as far as COVID-19 is concerned. We see a downward trend being sustained here in the National Capital Region,” he added.

Rye emphasized that they have assumptions in their projection and these are continued observance of minimum public health standards, no new COVID-19 variants entering the country, and the continued rollout of the vaccination program in other parts of the country.

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