Daily COVID cases in NCR may lower to 1,731 if Alert Level 4 remains ’til end-October — DOH

FILE Vaccination continues at the Markina City Sports Center on Monday. Niño Jesus Orbeta/Philippine Daily Inquirer

MANILA, Philippines — COVID-19 daily cases in Metro Manila may lower to 1,731 if the Alert Level 4 with shorter detection-to-isolation time would be implemented until October 31, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire shared on Monday.

During the Department of Health forum, Vergeire said that the scenarios used the “detection to isolation in August, which was longer at six days, and [in September] estimated to be at four days.”

“Looking at the projected cases by October 31, with the shorter detection to isolation time, daily cases may decrease to 1,731 cases if Alert Level 4 is continued while 3,211 to 3,605 daily cases are expected if the National Capital Region is deescalated to Alert Level 3,” Vergeire explained.

“However, if detection to isolation time is again prolonged, just like what we have observed in August, daily cases may decrease to 2,195 daily cases under Alert Level 4 while 4,061 to 4,557 daily cases are expected if Alert Level 3 is imposed,” she added.

“This further supports our call to focus on reducing the time between detection and isolation and to not only rely on measures that restrict mobility,” Vergeire went on.

The assumptions used in the projections are the Delta variant, vaccination rate, mobility, health system capacity, and severe and critical cases.

As of October 1, the actual daily cases in Metro Manila are at 3,897 cases.

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