DOH: 152,000 to 330,000 active COVID-19 cases in NCR by end-September

(FILE) A health worker attending to a suspected COVID- 19 patient at the Santa Ana hospital in Manila. INQUIRER PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines — The total number of active COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila may range from 152,000 to 330,000 by the end of September based on “a set of assumptions,” the Department of Health (DOH) said Friday.

“The DOH and FASSSTER find that based on a set of assumptions, total active cases in NCR for September 30 may range from 152,000 to 330,000. However, this is not cast in stone,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire told reporters in a Viber message.

FASSSTER is the disease surveillance team that the DOH taps for its own COVID-19 projections.

Vergeire earlier said NCR could record 330,000 cases if there will be no improvement in vaccinations, compliance to protocols, and detection to the isolation of cases. She said the cases in NCR could reach only 152,000 if there will be improvements in these factors.

Vergeire said the country remains at high-risk classification for COVID-19 but noted that a decrease in the two-week growth rate (TWGR) of cases has been observed nationally and in six regions, such as in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Central Visayas, and in Northern Mindanao.

“Nationally, we remain to be at high-risk case classification with a moderate risk two-week growth rate at 30% and high-risk average daily attack rate (ADAR) which increased to 17.14 cases for every 100,000 individuals,” said Vergeire.

“It is important to note that while the TWGR decreased, it still showed positive growth meaning numbers are still increasing, albeit at a slower rate,” she added.

Metro Manila has 46,666 active cases as of Thursday. Nationwide, the figure is at 166,672 active cases.

Metro Manila remains under modified enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) until September 15. Following the ECQ, a general community quarantine (GCQ) with granular lockdowns is set to be pilot tested in the region.

/MUF