OCTA notes NCR ‘serious surge’; hints Delta variant community transmission

This photo taken on April 6, 2021, shows a man wearing personal protective equipment walking into a makeshift ward built for COVID-19 patients at a hospital in Manila. – More contagious variants of the coronavirus have been blamed for a record surge in infections in Metro Manila that has overwhelmed hospitals and sent the national capital region into lockdown. (Photo by JAM STA ROSA / AFP)

MANILA, Philippines — The OCTA Research group on Sunday noted a “serious surge” in the National Capital Region’s (NCR) COVID-19 cases, adding that it could indicate the community transmission of the more transmissible Delta variant in the region.

According to OCTA’s latest monitoring report, the NCR recorded 1,740 new cases of COVID-19 on July 31, alone. This is the highest number of cases the NCR has recorded since May 10, 2021 — when the NCR was also still under modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ).

“The rapid growth rate suggests the possibility of community transmission of the Delta variant in the NCR,” said OCTA.

NCR’s seven-day average also increased by 40 percent to 1,249 cases from the past week’s 913, while the reproductive number increased to 1.52 from last week’s 1.29.

The research group said the hospital occupancy rate in the region also increased to 45 percent from 38 percent, while the intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate has increased to 52 percent from 45 percent.

OCTA warned that at the current rate, and if quarantine restrictions in the NCR are not changed, “hospital beds would reach 70 percent occupancy in less than five weeks while ICU will reach 70 percent occupancy in less than three weeks.”

Currently, OCTA classifies 13 local government units in the NCR as high-risk areas. Among these are: Pateros, Makati, San Juan, Malabon, Navotas, Las Piñas, Pasig, Muntinlupa, Valenzuela, Quezon City, Marikina and Caloocan.

Quezon City leads the list with the most number of average daily cases, followed by Manila and Makati.

The NCR Plus area is scheduled to be placed under ECQ from August 6 to August 20 amid the rising Delta variant cases.

Before the scheduled lockdown, the region was placed under general community quarantine “subject to heightened restrictions with additional restrictions” until August 5.

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