DOH: Experts fear NCR COVID-19 case increase by September despite lockdown

This photo taken on April 6, 2021 shows a man wearing personal protective equipment walking into a makeshift ward built for COVID-19 patients at a hospital in Manila. – More contagious variants of the coronavirus have been blamed for a record surge in infections in Metro Manila that has overwhelmed hospitals and sent the national capital region into lockdown. (AFP)

MANILA, Philippines — Despite stricter quarantine protocols, active COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila are expected  to increase to 18,000 to 20,000 by September, based on the projection of independent experts, the Department of Health (DOH) said Saturday.

Health Undersecretary Ma. Rosario Vergeire said this was the projection of experts or “modelers” who analyzed the current data on COVID-19 infection in the metropolis.

As of July 30, Metro Manila has 12,108 active cases, according to the DOH’s COVID-19 tracker.

She said this was the scenario projected by experts if Metro Manila is placed under general community quarantine (GCQ) with heightened restrictions for one week and enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) for three weeks.

There is also one scenario where there were four weeks of “hard lockdown,” she added.

“Dito sa mga scenario nakakita ng increase in the number of cases from 18,000 to 30,0000 number of cases. ‘Yan ay naka-ECQ na tayo,” she said in a televised public briefing.

She later issued a clarification that the jump to 18,000 to 30,000 active cases are expected by September even with restrictions implemented in August.

“Ang sinasabi lang natin, these lockdowns will help us prepare the system, but it is not going to control the spread,” she said.

“Kailangan pa rin natin iprepara ang sistema, gawin natin ‘yung mga dapat nating gawin para ma-prevent ang further spread ng Delta variant na ito,” she added.

(We need to prepare the system, do whatever is necessary to prevent the spread of the Delta variant.)

She, however, noted that these figures are initial projections of the health department and experts. 

Metro Manila will be placed under the strictest enhanced community quarantine classification from August 6 to 20 after local chief executives appealed to the national government for stricter quarantine protocols amid the threat of the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta variant. 

In the meantime, Metro Manila is under GCQ “subject to heightened restrictions and additional restrictions” until August 5. w

As of July 30, the Philippines has a total of  1,580,824 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 61,920 active cases, 1,491,182 recoveries, and 27,722 deaths. 

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