COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR slightly increased, says OCTA report

MANILA, Philippines — The COVID-19 reproduction number and seven-day average of new cases in Metro Manila have slightly gone up, OCTA Research said Wednesday as it also listed eight areas of concern outside the NCR Plus bubble.

In its monitoring report, OCTA said the reproduction number in Metro Manila from May 26 to June 1 was 0.68, higher than the 0.57 from the previous week.

Reproduction number is the number of cases estimated to originate from one case of COVID-19.

Meanwhile, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the region was 1,135 which shows a one-week growth rate of eight percent. The research group said this is the “first time the region had an increase since the peak of the surge, although the increase was slight.”

Metro Manila also recorded an average daily attack rate of 8.22 per 100,000 population. OCTA said this means that the capital region remained under moderate risk.

The researchers, however, noted that the healthcare utilization rate (HCUR) in the region remains within the safe level threshold at 41 percent, while intensive care unit occupancy is at 53 percent.

On the nationwide scale, the reproduction number increased to 1.09. The seven-day average also increased by 37 percent to 6,699.

“Note that the previous week’s average of 4,898 is the lowest daily average since the peak of the surge in April. The cause for this reversal in the downward trend is that the NCR Plus did not see a decrease in cases the past week that would counter the upward trends seen in many provinces and LGUs outside the NCR Plus bubble,” the monitoring report read.

The researchers, however, noted that the healthcare utilization rate (HCUR) in Metro Manila remains within the safe level threshold at 41 percent while intensive care unit occupancy is at 53 percent.

According to OCTA Research, Antipolo in Rizal and Santa Rosa in Laguna likewise had “significant increases” in new cases.

Outside the NCR Plus bubble, the areas of concern are Davao City, Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo City, Tuguegarao, General Santos, Butuan, Batangas City, and Tarlac City, all of which had “significant upward trends” over the past week.

Meanwhile, the HCUR in Iloilo City and Tuguegarao were at critical level. The HCUR in Iloilo City was at 88 percent while Tuguegarao was at 91 percent. Tuguegarao also recorded a 135 percent growth rate for the weekly average of new cases.

The HCUR in Cagayan de Oro, Zamboanga City, Butuan and Tarlac City were above 70 percent. Faith Yuen Wei Ragasa, Inquirer trainee

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