OCTA Research pushes for 1-week extension of MECQ in NCR Plus

The San Juan de Dios Educational Foundation in Pasay City, like many hospitals in Metro Manila, has run out of beds for COVID-19 patients. OCTA says another week of MECQ should help decrease reproduction rates, which would ease the overcrowding of hospitals more quickly —FILE PHOTO/ RICHARD A. REYES

MANILA, Philippines — The OCTA Research, which monitors COVID-19 trends in the country, urged the government Tuesday to extend the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) for at least another week in the NCR Plus.

In a statement, the OCTA Research noted that one more week of MECQ implementation will allow the downward trend of daily cases to stabilize.

According to the independent and inter-disciplinary research group, the decrease in new cases is still “uneven” among local government units in the NCR Plus bubble, which covers Metro Manila, Cavite, Rizal, Laguna, and Bulacan. It said that some LGUs have sustained decreases in numbers while others do not.

“Our concern is that a premature return to GCQ would trigger spikes in some LGUs that would overflow into adjacent cities and municipalities… Only increased testing, contact tracing, and quarantine and isolation capacities will prevent this from happening,” the OCTA Research said.

The researchers have noted that another week of MECQ, which ends on 30 April, should help decrease reproduction rates, which would ease the overcrowding of hospitals more quickly.

Hospitals in Metro Manila remain at critical capacity despite the slow decline in COVID-19 cases in National Capital Region, they added.

The group cited data from the Department of Health on April 24 showing that 43 hospitals and infirmaries in Metro Manila are still at 100 percent capacity. Meanwhile, 59 of the 177 hospitals and infirmaries are still above critical risk capacity.

“At the current reproduction number, R=0.9, we forecast that hospital COVID-19 bed occupancy will not drop to pre-surge numbers until sometime in June. If we can attain an R=0.8, we forecast that hospital occupancy will drop to pre-surge levels by the third week of May,” said OCTA.

The researchers also pointed out that once the quarantine status in the NCR Plus is moved from MECQ to general community quarantine, viral transmissions are expected to increase once people interact more again.

They said an extra week of MECQ would mean that there would be more time to improve contact tracing and to finish building new quarantine facilities.

OCTA Research noted that some might argue that two weeks of MECQ were enough to permanently reverse the first surge in July last year and that a month of ECQ and MECQ should achieve the same effect.

“In response, we point out that we do not know whether the presence of the more transmissible COVID-19 variants will replicate this trend,” the research group said.

The group then urged the national government to “identify and publish public health trigger levels for daily cases and health care utilization rates (HCUR) for a circuit-breaker lockdown to prevent a repeat of the tragic numbers we witnessed during the second surge last month.”

“In the end, we want to emphasize that the downward trend in the pandemic is always reversible. If we do not ensure that our testing, isolation, and quarantine capacities are sufficient, we will see the surge re-surge,” OCTA Research concluded.

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