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OCTA Research sees ‘holiday uptick’ in COVID-19 cases

/ 09:40 AM December 11, 2020

MANILA, Philippines — An uptick in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases ahead of the holidays might already be starting, the OCTA Research Group, which monitors the trends of the disease in the country, said on Friday.

“There are indicators—because we look at several indicators—that seem to show that an uptick might already be starting. We don’t have the full details yet because again these are just indicators,” Dr. Guido David from the OCTA Research Group said in an interview with ABS-CBN News Channel.

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“This could be something that would not transpire but again we will know more by next week if the uptick is continuing to grow,” he added.

But despite noting that a slight increase of infections may already be starting, David said the latest data show that the number of COVID-19 cases being recorded in the country has actually decreased.

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“We have been having only less than 2,000 cases per day in the Philippines, and in Metro Manila, we’re down to less than 400 cases per day which is actually good,” he pointed out.

In November, OCTA Research projected a lower estimate of 470,000 COVID-19 cases and a higher estimate of 500,000 cases by December 31, with a mean of 485,000.

But with the current situation, David said the country may hit the lower estimate of COVID-19 cases by yearend.

“Right now we are projected to reach the lower end of our projection which is closer to 470,000. It looks like we are going to reach something like 475,000 to 480,000 but that is with the current trajectory,” he explained.

“If the situation worsens a little bit, we might get closer to 500,000 cases, but right now that is not yet the case,” David added.

The country has already recorded a total of 445,540 COVID-19 cases as of Thursday. Of this figure, 27,781 are active cases with 1,383 newly-recorded infections, 409,058 recoveries, and 8,701 deaths.

/MUF

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TAGS:  Guido David, coronavirus Philippines, COVID-19, octa research group
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