‘Rolly’ rapidly turns into typhoon, but Pagasa says peak intensity far from super typhoon levels

MANILA, Philippines — Typhoon “Rolly” intensified rapidly right after entering the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), state meteorologists said on their Thursday evening update.

The first severe weather bulletin from Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Rolly showed that it now packs maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of 150 kph.

It was last located 1,280 kilometers east of Central Luzon, and is now moving westward at a speed of 20 kph.

But contrary to predictions by the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Rolly’s peak intensity before landfall may only be at 165 to 185 kph — far from the JTWC’s figures of maximum sustained winds of 240 kph and gustiness of 296 kph.

If JTWC’s prediction persists, then Rolly would fall under a super typhoon category, and not just a typhoon as Pagasa says.

READ: US weather bureau predicts ‘Rolly’ may intensify into super typhoon before landfall

The typhoon is still expected to continuously move west until it takes a west southwestern dive starting Friday until Saturday morning, which puts it a few hundred kilometers away from the Bicol Region.

But after that, it will make another turn, this time point west northwest, nearing the vicinity of Aurora, northern Quezon, or Central Luzon.  It may make landfall in any of these areas between Sunday evening or Monday morning.

By Sunday evening, it may be around 255 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon, and after crossing Luzon on Monday, it may emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

No area is currently under any tropical cyclone wind signal, as Rolly has yet to affect local weather.  However, rains are still seen to persist, especially in areas affected by the trough of the typhoon.

“Light to moderate with at times heavy rains may be experienced over Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, and Caraga.  The rainbands of the typhoon will likely bring rains over Bicol Region and the eastern section of Northern and Central Luzon beginning on Saturday or Sunday,” Pagasa said.

READ: Slight change in Goni’s predicted track puts Central Luzon, Metro Manila in crosshairs

JE