OCTA Research: Expect new COVID-19 cases in NCR due to expanded public transport use

A screenshot of a portion of the recent study by the OCTA Research.

MANILA, Philippines — The number of new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila is forecast to rise in the next two weeks because of the increase of commuters taking public transport last week, according to OCTA Research, which monitors and studies the transmission of coronavirus cases in the country.

In its monitoring report on the COVID-19 situation in the country dated October 26 and released to the media on Tuesday, the group noted that the use of public transport in Metro Manila “increased slowly but steadily in the past week.”

“We expect that this will trigger an increase in new COVID-19 cases in the NCR in the next two weeks,” noted OCTA research, an independent and interdisciplinary research group composed primarily of faculty members and alumni from the University of the Philippines, and includes contributors from the University of Santo Tomas and Providence College.

The increase in use of public transportation followed the announcement of Malacañang on October 14 that the national government has approved a one-seat apart rule on mass transport and allowed the expansion of the age bracket of people who can go out as part of efforts to reopen the economy amid the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But “as the national government continues to expand economic activity all over the country, the reality of an increase in viral transmissions will not be a question of if, but of when and by how much,” according to OCTA Research.

In this light, the group reiterated the urgent need for the government to implement the following measures:

• Further increase the capacity of the national health care system (manpower, equipment and bed capacity) to deal with the potential outbreaks
• Further increase testing to cope with the expected surge in cases
• Implement a more robust and aggressive system for contact tracing and to finally roll-out a contact tracing app for active case finding
• Continue building more isolation facilities not just in the NCR but also strategically in regions around the country where hospital capacities are limited
• Improve pandemic surveillance all around the country that can help in developing a better system for determining when LGUs should lockdown (a circuit breaker to deal with surges), and coordinate systems for sharing medical and isolation facilities

“We continue to urge the national government to carefully study and to monitor together with our experts from the health sector, the impact/implication of the resumption/expansion of certain socio-economic activities to ensure that these will not contribute to further transmission of the virus,” the group further said.

Metro Manila has so far recorded a total of 183,375 COVID-19 cases, with additional 396 cases of infection reported on Monday. Of this number, 11,584 are active, 168,501 are recoveries, and 3,290 are deaths.

OCTA Research is urging the national government to continue implementing the general community quarantine (GCQ) in Metro Manila, in consonance with the recommendation of NCR mayors to keep the region under GCQ until yearend.

“The virus is still with us, and people must remain disciplined and vigilant. Nonetheless, we acknowledge that this GCQ will be more open and relaxed than the GCQs in the past to promote the health of the economy,” the group said.

Nationwide, the total count of COVID-19 cases is marked at 371,630, with additional 1,607 cases of infection reported on Monday. Of the total tally, 36,333 are active, 328,258 are recoveries, and 7,039 are deaths.

EDV