UP expert: PH’s virus curve already flattened, but no cause for excitement yet

MANILA, Philippines — Although the curve of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infections in the Philippines has already flattened, a member of the research group from the University of the Philippines (UP) said Sunday the public shouldn’t be excited yet.

“Actually na-flatten na siya,” Dr. Guido David of the UP OCTA Research Team said over CNN Philippines’ “Newsroom Ngayon” when asked if the Philippines has already flattened the curve on COVID-19 infections.

The UP OCTA Research is an independent and interdisciplinary research group composed most of UP faculty members and alumni.

It was also David who previously said that the Philippines’ COVID-19 curve may flatten by end of August or September.

To prove his point, David cited that the Philippines’ reproduction number is already less than one percent.

“It’s about 0.94 when we last checked it using the latest data from mga 0.99 last week,” the UP expert said. “So nagde-decrease pa siya, and that is very good news. Ibig sabihin na su-sustain natin yung flattening of the curve.”

(So it’s decreasing, and that’s very good news. It means that we’re sustaining the flattening of the curve.)

David also said that another indicator that the Philippines has indeed flattened the curve was the decrease in positivity rate.

“We were averaging more than 4,000 cases sa Philippines nung (on) mid to late August, and now we’re averaging mga 3,000,” he said.

While the COVID-19 curve has already flattened, David said the public should not be “overly excited” about it.

“I want to remind yung mga viewers and listeners that flattening of the curve doesn’t mean tapos na yung problema natin (that our problem is solved), it doesn’t mean tapos na yung pandemic (it doesn’t mean the pandemic is over),” the expert said.

“The virus is still here. We’re still getting around 3,000 cases per day, and we have to sustain yung momentum natin (our momentum),” he added. “So have to keep doing the right things and not falter.”

And does this mean that National Capital Region—known as the epicenter of the country’s coronavirus outbreak—can shift to the most lenient modified general community quarantine (MGCQ)?

“If we ever relax to MGCQ, we should evaluate this carefully. I’m not saying we can’t but we have to evaluate carefully,” David said.

As of Saturday, the Philippines has recorded 234,570 COVID-19 cases with 161,668 recoveries and 3,790 deaths.

/MUF