Does second coronavirus wave pose a greater risk?

(Yonhap)

SEOUL — The new wave of coronavirus infections in South Korea looks similar to what the country experienced earlier this year: The first peak in late February and early March was driven by chain transmissions among members of the religious sect Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu, while the infections that are spiking now are mainly linked to a Seoul-based church.

As of Wednesday at noon, 623 confirmed cases have been traced to the Sarang Jeil Church in Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, since the first case was reported there on Aug. 12. The church is led by the controversial pastor Jun Kwang-hoon, who is a vocal critic of President Moon Jae-in.

The Daegu branch of the Shincheonji Church is still the single largest infection cluster in the country with 5,214 cases, but experts warn the impact of the ongoing church-driven virus resurgence may outpace that of the first one for a number of reasons.

Population density

Health authorities are paying attention to the fact that the main venues of mass infections are located in densely-populated areas — Seoul and nearby Gyeonggi Province and Incheon – where nearly half of the country’s population, or 250 million people, reside.

Those who have contracted the virus from the church quickly spread it to 144 locations where they work and visit, such as other churches, several call centers, hospitals and nursing homes.

Virus hits elderly

Another concerning factor is that those aged over 60 accounted for 38 percent of the total cases traced to the Sarang Jeil church, compared with the Shincheonji church’s 14.3 percent.

“If we can’t prevent the virus from spreading further from the greater Seoul metropolitan area, life across the whole country may halt and the safety of elderly people will be at risk,” Kwon Jun-wook, deputy director of the Central Disease Control and Prevention, said during a briefing on Wednesday.

Unidentifiable marchers at risk

As 10 members of Sarang Jeil Church attended at least one of two protests near the main palace Gyeongbokgung on Aug. 8 and at Gwanghwamun Plaza on Saturday, a large number of unidentifiable people from various regions of the country gathered for the rallies could have been exposed to the virus and passed it on to others.

No critical patient has yet to be reported since the first case was detected in the church on Aug. 12. “The number of patients with serious symptoms starts to increase an average of 7 to 10 days after the first infection is reported (in a cluster),” said Gwak Jin, an official at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters.

Highly-infectious GH strain

“There’s a high probability that the virus currently spreading in Seoul and the surrounding areas is linked to the highly-contagious GH strain,” Kwon said.

COVID-19 can be classified into seven different strains — S, V, L, G, GH, GR and O, according to the World Health Organization.

The GH strain of the virus spreads 6 times faster than other types of the virus, including the V strain that was confirmed in cases linked to Shincheonji church.

The GH clade began to be detected in Korea from early May when cluster infections ran rampant at clubs and bars in Seoul’s Itaewon.