GOV’T ECONOMIC TEAM:
‘Slowdown,’ not recession
By Maila Ager
INQUIRER.net
First Posted 13:10:00 11/12/2008
Filed Under: Economy and Business and Finance
MANILA, Philippines – (UPDATE) There is no economic recession in 2009 just a “slowdown,” according to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s economic team, as it allayed businessmen’s fears.
National Economic Development Authority Director General Ralph Recto, Finance Secretary Margarito Teves, and Budget Secretary Rolando Andaya made this assurance to reporters after attending the budget hearing at the Senate Wednesday.
“Recession means no jobs will be created next year and I don’t see that happening. There will be a slowdown. There is a slowdown this year already,” Recto said.
“We don’t expect a recession next year because as I pointed out earlier there are many investments taking place,” he said.
Teves agreed that there would be no recession in 2009, explaining that a recession would mean “two successive quarters of negative economic growth.”
From 7 percent in 2007, Recto estimates a lower economic growth of 4.6 percent by end of this year and 3.6 percent to 4.6 percent growth in 2009.
“Hindi tayo magkakaroon ng economic recession, magkakaroon ng economic slowdown pero hindi economic recession. Yun ang technical difference [We will not have an economic recession, we will have an economic slowdown but not an economic recession. That is the technical difference],” he pointed out.
Besides, Teves said, a recession would reflect difficulty in job generations.
“Ang slowdown sa layman’s language ay kung yung neighbor mo ay nawalan ng trabaho. Ang recession kapag ikaw na mismo ay nawalan ng trabaho [A slowdown in layman’s language is if your neighbor loses his job. A recession is if you yourself will lose your job],” he said.
“So mas matindi yung recession kaysa sa slowdown [So a recession is much worse than a slowdown] and it is generally reflected sa mga [in the] jobs. So magkakaroon tayo ng problema sa [So we will have a problem with] jobs but not in the same gravity as a recession,” he said.
Andaya agreed, saying that the businessmen are just probably referring to a slowdown, and not a recession.
“I think what they mean is actually a slowdown not that recession in the technical sense of the word,” he said.
“Yung concern nila, pangamba rin namin at pangamba ng lahat ng bansa sa buong mundo [Their concern is our concern and the concern of the rest of the world],” he said.
And because of this projected slowdown, the Development Budget Coordinating Council adjusted its budget deficit from P40 billion to P102 billion in 2009, they said.
Asked about the big adjustment, Andaya said, “Of course, we want to respond sa pangangailangan ngayon [to the needs now].”
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