Weathermen now unsure about La Niña

The La Niña episode that weathermen warned us about in the last quarter of this year may not develop after all.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said most climate models now indicate “uncertainties” about a La Niña occurrence, which was originally expected to come on the heels of a particularly strong El Niño episode that hit from 2015 until the middle of 2016.

The weather bureau said the cooler than average sea surface temperatures observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in the third quarter of the year do not appear likely to persist in the coming months.

“Thus, there are still some uncertainties that La Niña will develop. [Nevertheless,] La Niña watch is still in effect,” Pagasa said.

Last May, Pagasa had warned that La Niña may develop in the second half and peak in the last quarter of 2016 at the height of the rainy season.

While El Niño brought drought to many parts of the country, La Niña was expected to cause flashfloods due to heavier than usual rains.

Pagasa had said La Niña usually follows after a strong El Niño episode.

For November, Pagasa predicted “near to above normal rainfall” in southern Luzon, Western and Central Visayas, Northern and Western Mindanao this month. It said the rest of the country would likely have “near to below normal rainfall.”

One to three more cyclones are expected to affect the country this month.

So far the country has had 12 cyclones this year, including four strong typhoons in October.

The last one was Supertyphoon “Lawin” (international name: “Haima”) that plowed into northern Luzon from Oct. 17 to 21, leaving at least 18 people dead and at least P3.73 billion worth of damage in agriculture and infrastructure.

Lawin came less than three years after Supertyphoon “Yolanda” (Haiyan) devastated the Visayas on Nov. 8, 2013, leaving at least 6,000 people dead and incalculable damages to the region.

Despite the prevailing northeast monsoon, Pagasa also warned of “warmer than average” air temperatures in most of Luzon and Visayas consistent with rising global heat records.