Expect less rainfall in Visayas, Mindanao by October due to El Niño
MANILA, Philippines — Expect less rains especially in Visayas and Mindanao by October due to El Niño, according to the state weather bureau.
Based on all international climate models, there’s now a 70 percent chance that El Niño, a phenomenon marked by below-normal rainfall and stronger storms, will manifest in the third quarter, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has announced.
“From October to December until March of the following year, the amount of rainfall is expected to decrease,” said Flaviana Hilario, the agency’s deputy administrator for research and development, said on Thursday.
“We will experience near to above normal rainfall from July to September even October in many parts of the country. But by October, more areas will experience below normal amount of rainfall, especially in the Visayas and Mindanao,” she added, citing Pagasa’s seasonal climate forecast.
Hilario said the initial manifestation of El Niño would not be in low rainfall, but the opposite. “Usually, tropical cyclones that form during the early months of El Niño are stronger,” she said.
She noted that Tropical Storm “Ondoy” (international name Ketsana) in September 2009 occurred in an El Niño year.
Article continues after this advertisement“The number of tropical cyclones that enter the Philippine area of responsibility is still within the average, only most tropical cyclones will not make landfall,” Hilario said.
Article continues after this advertisementEl Niño occurs when the sea surface temperature over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean grows warmer, attracting tropical cyclones to that area and away from the country. The Philippines lies in the Western Pacific.
The onset of El Niño is expected in either July or August.
“It is quite similar to the 2009 El Niño in terms of the onset. But as we have seen from the impacts of El Niño before, no two El Niños are alike,” Hilario said.
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