Metro Manila COVID-19 reproduction number lowest in 3 months

Dr. Guido David, OCTA Research fellow (Photo from a Facebook livestream video of the Pandesal Forum at the Kamuning Bakery Cafe)

MANILA, Philippines — Trends in COVID-19 transmission in Metro Manila continued to drop as the reproduction number, which measures the capacity of the virus to spread, decreased to below 1 in the capital region, the lowest in more than three months, according to pandemic monitor OCTA Research.

OCTA Research fellow Guido David said in a post on Twitter that the reproduction number in Metro Manila slid to 0.99 on Aug. 23 from 1.02 a week ago on Aug. 16. A reproduction number of below 1 was last recorded on May 11 this year, he noted.

“A reproduction number below 1 indicates infections are trending downward,” David said. If such a metric is above 1, it means an infected person can pass on the virus to more than one individual at a given time.

Other indicators are also declining, David said, including the positivity rate, average daily attack rate, and healthcare utilization. The weekly positivity rate slightly moved down to 13.6 percent on Aug. 25 from 14.7 the previous week.

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