COVID on 2-week downtrend – OCTA fellow

Dr. Guido David of OCTA Research. (Screenshot from INQSIDE LOOK interview)

MANILA, Philippines — COVID-19 cases in the country have been on “a downward trend,” with a “negative growth rate for two weeks now,” according to a fellow of the OCTA Research group.

“We are seeing that the number of cases continue[s] to decrease nationwide. In fact, we have a negative growth rate in the whole Philippines at -14 percent [as of Aug. 16 to Aug. 22],” Dr. Guido David said at Tuesday’s Laging Handa briefing.

The growth rate refers to the rise or drop in coronavirus cases in a given week, compared with its previous week.

Before the drop to -14 percent, the country’s growth rate was at -2 percent from Aug. 9 to Aug. 15, David said.

Meanwhile the “reproduction number,” as he called the “the number of infections of an infected person,” dropped to 0.97 on Aug. 19, from 1.07 on Aug. 12.

‘Vaccination drive’

“A reproduction number around 1 means 1 infected person infects 1 other person,” he explained when reached for comment.

David said the downward numbers could be attributed to the government’s “vaccination drive.”

“That’s what we think is the reason why [cases are] decreasing,” he said.

“When that’s the case, we can say that it’s a trend,” he added.

Yet the number of people inoculated with booster shots was still at a relatively low 17.5 million as of Monday, whereas 72.3 million have been administered the full primary doses.

The government has refrained from making booster vaccination mandatory.

Metro Manila figures

The growth rate in Metro Manila also had a “very encouraging” decline as it fell to -12 percent on Aug. 16 to Aug, 22 from -1 percent on Aug. 9 to Aug. 15, David noted.

“The reproduction number [in the capital region] was 1.04 as of Aug. 19,” he said on Tuesday. He tweeted a day earlier that the number was at “1.11 as of Aug. 11.”The health-care utilization rate was at a “stable” 37 percent, compared with the 50-percent “warning level,” he pointed out.

“So we are still far from 50 percent,” David said.

Metro Manila’s intensive care unit occupancy was at 31 percent, compared with the 70 percent to 80 percent during the Delta surge in August last year.

“We can manage this, and if our cases continue to decrease, most likely our health-care utilization will not increase too much,” the OCTA fellow said.

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