11 LGUs still experiencing COVID-19 outbreak – OCTA

SUNDAY DIP The refreshing cool waters of Bitbit River in Norzagaray town, Bulacan province, welcome lockdown-weary families on Sunday morning, days after authorities relaxed alert levels in Metro Manila and other regions. —NIÑO JESUS ORBETA

MANILA, Philippines — Eleven local government units (LGUs) outside Metro Manila could still be experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak, even amid a general decline in coronavirus cases in the capital region and across the country, the independent Octa Research Group said.

“The Delta (variant) surge is slowing down in the National Capital Region and most provinces. However, there are smaller municipalities where outbreaks have occurred,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said in a report released on Saturday, based on OCTA’s analysis of data from the Department of Health (DOH).

The 11 LGUs with the highest number of daily average new cases in the period of Oct. 30-Nov. 5 are Tuguegarao City; the town of Santa Ana in Cagayan; the municipality of Pudtol in Apayao; Baguio City; Antipolo City; Puerto Princesa City; the town of Lubang in Occidental Mindoro; Bacolod City; Dumaguete City; Zamboanga City; and Davao City.

David said cases have surged in Pudtol and in Santa Ana since their reproduction numbers have “increased significantly” to 3.8 and 2.17, respectively, as of last Friday.

The reproduction number indicates how many others are infected by a virus-positive person. The higher the number, the wider the transmission.

Nationwide the reproduction number has fallen below 1, which means the spread of the coronavirus is on the decline.

High risk amid decline

According to OCTA, Dumaguete City and Lubang are still classified as high risk, based on their positivity rate among those who were tested for the virus, health-care utilization rate, and average daily attack rate, which measures new cases in a population of 100,000 in a given area.

Still, daily new COVID-19 cases in these two areas have lately been on a decline, David said.

Zamboanga City still has the highest daily average of new cases outside the capital region, although its case count has also been on a downward trend. This puts Zamboanga under a moderate-risk classification, together with Baguio City, Bacolod City, Tuguegarao City and Puerto Princesa City.

Davao City and Antipolo City are classified as low risk despite posting the third and fifth highest number of average daily new cases last week.

2,605 new cases

The DOH reported 2,605 new cases on Sunday, an increase from the 2,376 cases on Friday when new infections returned to the 2,000-mark after two days below that level. This brought the total COVID-19 cases in the country to 2,803,213.

Sunday’s case bulletin had 33,526 active cases—the lowest in eight months—of which 66 percent were mild, 5.7 percent were asymptomatic, 15.4 percent were moderate, 9 percent were severe and 3.8 percent were critical.

The DOH said 3,901 have recovered, bringing total survivors to 2,725,257.

There were 191 more fatalities—of which 151 were originally reported as recoveries—bringing the death toll to 44,430.

Out of 48,450 people who were tested last Friday, 5.2 percent or 2,519 turned out positive. The department said this was the lowest positivity rate in nine months or since Feb. 15.

Health-care utilization remained at a “safe” level nationwide, according to the DOH—with 42 percent of intensive care unit (ICU) beds, 31 percent of isolation beds and 25 percent of ward beds currently occupied, and 25 percent of ventilators in use.

In Metro Manila, 38 percent of ICU beds, 28 percent of isolation beds and 26 percent of ward beds were currently occupied, and 24 percent of ventilators were in use.

Two laboratories did not report their test results.