Daily COVID-19 cases in NCR may decrease to just 1,100 by November 15

MANILA, Philippines — New COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila may decrease to around 1,100 by November 15, the Department of Health (DOH) said on Saturday as it hopes for looser restrictions by Christmas.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the projections were made by the FASSSTER team, composed of experts in disease modeling, health informatics, social computing and health systems development.

“If we will look at our daily cases, we will be averaging about 1,100 cases by November 15, daily cases dito sa National Capital Region. Kung magtutuloy-tuloy po ‘yan at maipagpapatuloy po natin ang pagkontrol ng transmission ng sakit na ito, sana po, tayo ay naghohope na by Christmas time, magkakaroon tayo ng mas maluwag na classification and restrictions sa ating mga kababayan,” Vergeire said at the Laging Handa public briefing.

(If we look at our daily cases, we will be averaging about 1,100 daily cases by November 15 in the National Capital Region. If the decrease in cases will continue, we hope that we will have looser restrictions by Christmas.)

According to Guido David of independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research, the average of new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila from October 2 to 8 was at 2,140. He said the reproduction number, or the average number of individuals getting infected by a positive case, was at 0.61.

Metrics for NCR as of 10.8.21. 7-day average 2140, reproduction number 0.61, ADAR 15, positivity rate 13%, HCUR 53%. NCR is moderate per our metrics. @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @allangatus @cnnphilippines @News5PH @NewsRmn @dzbbsamnielsen @haydeesampang @dwiz882 @PHINewsNet1 pic.twitter.com/QfDMGBVwgL

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) October 9, 2021

Based on the DOH tracker, Metro Manila has 24,400 active cases of COVID-19 while the entire country has 118,203 active cases of the disease as of Friday.

EDV