OCTA: NCR COVID-19 cases now on downward trend

FILE PHOTO: Health workers spray disinfectant as they make their way through Barangay 628 Zone 63 in Santa Mesa district, Manila, which has been placed on lockdown for four days because of an increase in COVID-19 cases in the village in March. INQUIRER/RICHARD A. REYES

MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number is now at 0.99, signaling a downward trend of cases in the capital region, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Thursday.

“R = 0.99 in NCR (National Capital Region). This means the trend is now downward,” OCTA Research senior fellow Guido David said in a text message to INQUIRER.net. He added that the latest figure was as of September 22.

On Wednesday, David said the reproduction number in the capital region was at 1.03 as of September 21.

Reproduction number is the average number of individuals being infected by a positive case. The research group earlier said the ideal reproduction number is below one.

However, David noted that the public should not be relaxed even if there is now a downward in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila.

“We cannot be complacent yet. Cases have started to decrease but the ADAR (average daily attack rate) is still 33.47, which is considered level 4. The 7-day average in the NCR is 4,674 new cases. This is 20% lower than the previous week. Hospital occupancy is still high,” he said.

ADAR is the number of new daily cases per 100,000 people.

OCTA Research earlier observed a decrease in the reproduction number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila and noted a possible “end game” of the highly transmissible Delta variant in the Philippines.

Metro Manila now has 41,569 active COVID-19 cases, based on the tracker of the Department of Health. Nationwide, the number of active cases of the disease was 162,580.

/MUF