DA lowers forecast for 2011 rice production

The Department of Agriculture has scaled down its 2011 rice production forecast by 4.3 percent to 16.68 million metric tons (MT) after typhoons that hit the country in the second half of the year pulled down the country’s rice harvests.

The DA-Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (DA-BAS) said national paddy yield could reach P16.68 million MT in 2011, 5.7 percent higher than the 2010 output of 15.77 million MT.

However, the projected rice production was 700,000 MT less than the 17.4 million MT target set by the DA at the start of the year as part of its goal to make the country rice self-sufficient.

Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala said the momentum enjoyed by the farm sector in the first half of the year due to favorable weather was tempered by the typhoons in the second semester.

“The first three quarters were above-average. But the typhoons hit us; that is the reality,” Alcala told reporters. He noted that the country’s total farm output for 2011 could grow by only between 3-3.5 percent, well below his five percent growth target envisioned at the start of the year.

Rice is the main staple of the Philippines. Along with corn, which was seen to top at 6.99 million MT, 9.6 percent above the 2010 output of 6.38 million MT, the commodity accounts for half of the national agriculture value.

BAS said the storms that pummeled Luzon in the second half of 2011 took its toll on rice paddies. From July-December, BAS said it expects rice output to decline by .6 percent to 9.10 million MT.

In the last quarter of 2011, which saw two destructive typhoons, Pedring and Quiel, enter the country, production forecast based on standing crops pointed to a decrease of 8.8 percent from last year’s level of 6.50 million MT. BAS said rice output could total 5.93 million MT  in the last quarter.

“This is largely because of the adverse effects of typhoons Pedring and Quiel on standing palay crops,” BAS said.

The typhoons also destroyed farm lands, particularly in major rice-producing regions. Central Luzon, Bicol Region, Calabarzon and Mimaropa appeared to have suffered the brunt of the storms.

According to BAS, harvest area was seen to decline in the last quarter by 8.6 percent to 1.67 million hectares. Yield per hectare may be reduced by 0.3 percent, from 3.56 MT to 3.55 MT.

For the first quarter of 2012, the Philippines is eyeing to harvest 4.09 million MT.

Should this happen, it would surpass the 4.03 million MT output in the first three months of 2011, which was the highest quarter harvest recorded in Philippine history.