El Niño weakening, to end middle of year, say experts

THE EL NIÑO phenomenon, along with the dry condition it brings, is weakening and is expected to be over toward midyear, according to American climate experts.

In their latest monthly update, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said all El Niño indicators had “decreased slightly” compared with December when the phenomenon was still strong.

Temperatures below the surface of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean have subsided although still above historical averages.

But the abnormal westerly direction of the winds blowing over the tropical regions of the Pacific has continued.

The NOAA explained that such atmospheric and oceanic anomalies “reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño episode.”

It said most climate prediction models suggest the El Niño would weaken with a transition to neutral—meaning no El Niño nor La Niña with its opposite effects—during the late spring or early summer in the northern hemisphere.

“The forecasters are in agreement with the model consensus, though the exact timing of the transition is difficult to predict,” the NOAA said.

Earlier this month, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs called for urgent action to help secure food supplies for regions and countries threatened by the effects of the strong El Niño.

Stephen O’Brien, UN undersecretary general for the coordination of humanitarian affairs, said in a statement the El Niño over the past months had caused massive floods in some countries while leaving others very dry.

O’Brien said that in some regions, millions of people were facing food insecurity caused by drought related to El Niño.

“In other parts of the world, we have a short window of opportunity to prepare for what we know will happen within months,” he added. “In both cases, we must act together and we must act quickly.”

Climatologists said the current El Niño was most likely among the three strongest occurrences since 1950, along with those that happened in 1997-1998 and in 1982-1983.

In the Philippines, agricultural production managed to stay afloat in the first nine months of 2015, growing by 0.6 percent year-on-year to P658.7 billion in constant prices as destructive typhoons and dry conditions due to the El Niño laid siege to farms.

The Department of Agriculture has been pushing for the popular adoption of cisterns and other water-harvesting facility projects to help address the effects of El Niño, as well as the long-term prospects of a water shortage in the Philippines.

Also, the Bureau of Plant Industry said a total of 116,104 bags of drought-resilient, inbred rice seeds were available to farmers in supply centers across the nation.

These supplies, enough to plant about the same number of hectares of farms, are recommended for planting, especially for the dry season crop.