SWS poll taken before Duterte cussed Pope
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO/LYN RILLON
THE SURGE in the numbers of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte in a nationwide survey on voters’ preferred presidential candidate was “not unexpected” but his giant lead was likely to be affected as the poll did not cover his infamous cursing of Pope Francis that angered many people, according to two senators.
Senators Serge Osmeña III and Antonio Trillanes IV said they expected Duterte’s numbers to drop in the next survey.
“How permanent the damage will be on the image and reputation of Mayor Duterte, we will not know until the next survey. There could be a dip, a temporary drop in the ratings… How temporary the negative (effect) is, we don’t know,” Osmeña told reporters.
Describing the results as “skewed” and “not believable,” Trillanes said the poll was all part of Duterte’s “communication plan” as the mayor had always intended to run for President, contrary to his earlier declarations.
Conducted five days after Duterte declared his bid for the presidency, the survey found that the mayor was the No. 1 pick of voters not only from all socioeconomic classes but also from all geographical areas.
In the survey that Social Weather Station (SWS) conducted on Nov. 26-28, 38 percent of voters picked Duterte.
Sen. Grace Poe, the erstwhile front-runner, and Vice President Jejomar Binay were in second place with 21 percent each. Former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas got 15 percent and Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, 4 percent.
Duterte declared his bid for the presidency only after the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) dismissed the disqualification case against Poe.
Osmeña, a known strategist in presidential campaigns, said he found the survey to be “realistic” but was “not something unexpected.”
“I think Duterte touches a nerve in the psyche of the Filipino people, especially those in the D and E class. I have seen that. I have seen Mayor Duterte’s pull with the people,” said the senator, who has declared support for Duterte’s presidential bid.
Asked whether Duterte would lead all the way, Osmeña said things could still change, noting that the SWS survey did not coincide with the Nov. 30 Duterte proclamation by Partido Demokratikong Pilipino-Laban ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) in which the mayor cursed the Pope for the traffic jam in Metro Manila during the papal visit in January.
Osmeña acknowledged that the attack on the Pope would have a negative effect on Duterte’s numbers. “How temporary that negative is, we don’t know.”
Asked to comment on whether the survey was flawed as it gave a leading question to respondents, Osmeña said “there might be a flaw there.” But he added that he had to see the questionnaire first to make such a determination.
Even so, Trillanes was adamant that the survey was “not believable” and that it was just being used as a “propaganda tool” by Duterte’s camp.
“Haven’t you noticed? There is a communication plan? Didn’t [Duterte] first say he would not run. But we knew his [presidential bid] was taking off and he was just waiting for the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) [decision],” said Trillanes, an independent vice presidential candidate who is supporting Poe’s presidential bid.
He said the Duterte camp was expecting the SET to disqualify Poe and was then prepared to make a statement that the mayor would run for president.
But the opposite happened and the SET dismissed the disqualification petition against Poe, prompting Duterte to say he will now run for President because he did not want an American president, Trillanes said.
To make his point, the senator said Duterte’s camp commissioned a Pulse Asia survey covering the Nov. 11-12, or before the SET decision on Poe.
“So that means they already had a plan (for Duterte to run)… because they commissioned a survey,” he said.
Trillanes said the survey was used as part of the Duterte camp’s communication plan to “create a buildup, to show there was allegedly a momentum, that this is it, (Duterte) is the next big thing.”
But he said the momentum was affected by Duterte’s controversial statements on the Pope, noting that the many people he talked to about the incident were dismayed by the mayor’s statements.
