Dry spell starts this month

INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

There will be less rain than usual during what is normally the peak of the rainy season in the country as a particularly strong El Niño begins to be felt this month, the weather bureau said.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has warned of drought or dry spell conditions in 29 provinces by the end of the month due to reduced rainfall.

In a bulletin dated Sept. 3 but issued only on Tuesday, Pagasa said a “mature and strong” El Niño will “likely strengthen further before the end of the year and may last until the first half of 2016.”

“It is likely that most parts of the country will experience below-normal rainfall during September,” Pagasa said.

It forecast way-below normal rainfall in the provinces of Ilocos Norte, La Union, Cagayan and Sultan Kudarat this month.

El Niño is the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that causes extreme weather around the world, including drought conditions and stronger storms.

“This 2015-2016 El Niño event will potentially be among the four strongest events since 1950,” Pagasa said, citing the major El Niño episodes in 1972-1973, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.

This month, four provinces—Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte and Bohol—will likely experience drought, or more than 60 percent less-than-normal rainfall, for three consecutive months, Pagasa said.

Another 19 provinces may experience a dry spell, or more than 60 percent less-than-normal rainfall, for at least two consecutive months—Isabela, Sorsogon, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Compostella Valley, South Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Basilan, Maguindanao and Sulu and Tawi-tawi.

Six other provinces will have dry conditions, or at least 21 to 60 percent less-than-normal rainfall for at least two consecutive months.

Also because of El Niño, most of the country will continue to have “slightly warmer” surface air temperatures this month, Pagasa said.

El Niño is also associated with more violent storms in the Pacific Ocean.

The weather bureau also forecasts two to four cyclones to hit the country in September.

The Pagasa climatology monitoring and prediction section also predicted that at least 47 provinces will suffer from moderate to severe drought while 20 other provinces will suffer dry spell or dry conditions during the peak of El Niño from September 2015 to February 2016.

Metro Manila and 58 percent of the county is expected to experience drought by December, said Pagasa’s Remy Ciervo.

Despite the dry conditions, isolated thunderstorms could still be experienced in the country, Ciervo added. Dona Z. Pazzibugan

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